Jumped more than fifteen years rear1! There have to go back to the first quarter of 1998 to find an unemployment rate as bad in France. The situation at the time was different, however. The French economy was emerging from a period of weakness and was about to experience a growth phase, with grazing rates, even exceeding 3% per annum. Nothing like today. It would even be quite the opposite. All international organizations predict that 2013 will be a year of recession (with negative growth rates between -0.2% and -0.1%). France is in fact of revival with growth next year, and even with a low rate of growth of national wealth estimated at around 1%.
In 1997 the government (socialist) had accompanied the massive economic downturn, with two strong measures in employment. First, the passage forced march (starting in 1999) to 35 hours, and secondly, the creation of 350,000 jobs for young people (heavily subsidized by the state contracts) in the non-profit sector over five years. Lionel Jospin provided even then also the hiring of 350,000 jobs for young people in other companies (the final unfilled). But what had the time allowed to leave the economy is growing. The support of the state, particularly in terms of youth employment had been only marginal. Between 1997 and 2002, no less than 3 million jobs have indeed been created, 300,000 or less generated by the mere reduction of working time. 10%.
A state support smaller
Fiscal crisis and the need to bring the accounts to balance 2obligent, fifteen years after the wing was heavily downgraded. The support of the State in social treatment of unemployment, is more limited effect. Hollande 3escompte creating 100,000 jobs for the future (the successors of youth employment in 1997) this year and 150,000 in total by the end of 2014. Barely 21% of the funds promised for youth employment (700,000 in public and private) in the coming to power of the Left in 1997. Question assisted contracts, the envelope is roughly the same and amounts to around 400,000 devices subsidized. As contracts generation (device for the employment of a young person CDI against the continued employment of a senior), half a million are scheduled in five years, including 80,000 this year.
Worse, the forecast creation / destruction of jobs for years to come are the reverse of those of 1997. Fifteen years ago, the economy was going into effect to create more than 320,000 jobs! As a result, over the two years 1998-1999 recovery, payroll employment rose by 670,000 … Today, unemployment insurance – which is seldom wrong in his expectations – instead allows the destruction of nearly 185,000 jobs over the years 2013-2014. With a parallel increase in the number of registered unemployed in category A at employment center than 310,000!
Reached three times in the past
It is thus difficult in these conditions (recessionary economy, forecasts of job destruction, public policies on the labor market downgraded …) how the curve of unemployment, rising continuously for more than two years, could s' reversed before the end of the year, as yet promises François Hollande4. The historical record of an unemployment rate of 10.8% of the workforce, reached only three times in the past (in the second quarter of 1994, the first and second quarter of 1997), has every chance of being equaled or exceeded this year if the current trend (with quarterly increases of 0.2 or 0.3) continues
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