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With these new prévisions1 could not be more bleak for 2013 and 2014, the renegotiation of the UI convention to be held at the end of the year looks complex. The stakes are high: it will not be to plug an economic hole – the deficit will reach 5.6 billion UNEDIC end of 2014, a record year on year – but to curb bleeding endless with cumulative deficit of more than $ 24 billion on that date. The equivalent of the Ministry of Research annual budget!

And for good reason: social partners, negotiating every three years the conditions for unemployment benefits, do not agree on remedies to be made. The unions do not want to revolutionize the rules, and in particular the principle of "one day paid a compensation day" established in 2009 and the opening from 4 months contribution of the right to be compensated. All, without exception, consider the return to growth will be sufficient to bring forward the accounts in the green. "The finances of UNEDIC are highly reactive to any downturn," says an official of the regime. But a turnaround is not expected until 2017 at best

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The government – which transposes into law the agreement the social partners reach – does not intend to endorse a drastic reform of compensation, while the number of unemployed explodes (300,000 + in a year). Politically too dangerous, especially for a Socialist executive already criticized by the left wing.

After Tuesday night, the preparatory meeting with the social partners in the social conference in late June, Jean-Marc Ayrault2 has also said that one of the issues in the negotiations would "know collectively address situations such as the purpose of law. " 750,000 unemployed or those who find themselves deprived of compensation each year and tipped into the social minimum. In short, the opposite of a drastic reform to rebalance accounts permanently in the red.

Too generous system

Employers is not all on the same wavelength. Considering the system too généreux3 (up to 6200 euros monthly income and 36 months of allocation), employers want instead revisit in depth the conditions of compensation, including restoring a gradual reduction of benefits to encourage the unemployed to take more a job quickly. All candidates for president of MEDEF – co-chair, alternating with the CFDT, UNEDIC – point in that direction. Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux4, president of UNEDIC for two years on behalf of the MEDEF, and Pierre Gattaz5, the two favorites, and want to limit the amount of 2000 euros monthly allowance and a full year benefit period. A casus belli for the unions … Their goal is to correct two annexes structurally in the red: the intermittent and technicians show (1 billion deficit each year) and the less well-known cross-border ($ 1.5 billion). Again, red cloths for trade unions (with the exception of the CFDT), but also for the government, which has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to these annexes expensive

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Director of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), political scientist Ulrike Guérot specializes in European issues and connoisseur Franco-German relations.

LE FIGARO. – What is the state of the Franco-German relationship today?

Ulrike Guérot. – There is tension, but it is when the couple quarrel! Do not idealize the past periods, which were not nearly as pink as they say. The creation of the euro was a Seven Years War! We fought and it was constructive. Symbiosis, as in 1 and Merkel Sarkozy was stifling for the rest of Europe. But beware, the Franco-German crisis is constructive if there is a political will to resolve and make a deal that gives air to other countries out

.

Do you break something constructive between Paris and Berlin at the moment?

It is true that at this moment you have to dig far down the tunnel to see the light! The task is enormous. The first emergency, these are the reforms in France. Because France has lost its structural parity with Germany. As a result, it becomes difficult for it to enforce its views. To make its voice heard within the Franco-German couple and Europe, it must be straightened out economically.

To date it when you drop the Franco-German?

Based on macroeconomic data, it dates from 2007. In 2003, France and Germany have all violated the Stability Pact. Germany took the opportunity to make the reforms that are needed. France, she did nothing of the sort.

Germany agrees to give two more years to France to meet the 3% deficit. Berlin he renounces his principles of rigor?

No! It's like a gift that makes Germany to France. It must use this respite of two years to reform and prove that it is a serious country. Since Germany has decided to abandon the D-Mark in 1992, it expected that France wakes embraces the enlargement of the EU, globalization, and launches the debate on the future of Europe, it stopped in 2005 after the "no" to the European Constitution.

Why such a gift to France?

As for Germany, France is a special case. This is not Cyprus2 nor Greece3. Against France, Germany was out of respect. In this crisis, France is "systemic" if it skids financially and economically, it is dangerous for Germany and the rest of the euro zone

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Germany Does not concerned that France take this time to do nothing?

There was this fear. But there is also hope that Holland make reforms, as Mitterrand was able to do in 1982-83. There is no alternative to survive in globalization.

What are the most awaited reforms Berlin today?

Germany expects a new pension reform, the abandonment of 35 hours, a further reform of the labor market, social security and sanitation deficits. It must do all that southern countries of Europe have done. And do not put as a prerequisite for its reforms pooling of eurozone debt! This is France to take the first step today. This is the condition for the revival of Europe. It also requires that Germany do more efforts on domestic demand and wages. This is a reciprocal movement. It should be a summary of a European social contract.

Saturday night by winning 23-16 against the Scottish XV, the Blues XV of France saved the furniture in their last match of the Six Nations. Success in extremis that does not allow the French to escape the wooden spoon, and will not be neutral finances of the French Rugby Federation (FFR). Lights for rugby, the RBS Six Nations is indeed substantial revenue in terms of ticket. And the sum of the organizing committee pays the FFR depends for 25% of the final ranking of the XV of France. The fourth-place finish in 2012 had resulted in a shortfall of 1 million euros over the 2011/2012 season. Manageable loss budget of 94.3 million. Especially as the finalist XV of France during the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand was largely offset this loss FFR had pocketed 2 million bonus from his sponsors.

The good performance too expensive for the same cost FFR: 5 million more a year of "salary players" for this place finalist in the World Cup (rugby bonuses for their summons, selections and victories in international matches). In the end, the poor performance in the tournament in 2013 can therefore make savings on 2012/2013: EUR 700,000 at a minimum according to our estimates *.

The image and attractiveness of rugby are involved

"In the medium term recurrence bad result would necessarily impact on the attractiveness of the product XV of France," warns François Hilbrandt however, a consultant specializing in rugby at Kurt Salmon. The popularity of the oval ball effect attracts many brands, allowing the federation to substantially increase its revenues in recent years. For example, the FFR chose earlier this year to French Renault BMW as a new sponsor for a million extra per year faxless payday advance.

But poor results were to reproduce the situation could change. In a crisis, the marks show indeed much more selective in their marketing investments. According to the White Paper of 2012 sponsorship of sports marketing firm Sportlab the XV de France is considered the second French team conveying the most positive values ​​behind the Experts handball and well ahead of France football team (3 % considering carrying values ​​very positive).  

38% positive feedback on social networks

But the results are mixed this season have already been felt on hearing: after good scores in the first match against Italy, France 2 has seen its audience share fall from 39.1% in 2012 (5.84 million viewers) to 29% for the 2013 edition (5.28 million viewers on average). And social networks, the very positive tone following the epic New Zealand is a little dull. According to the firm Synthesio specializes in e-reputation, 23% of mentions around 60,205 Tournament XV and lights are negative. "Despite the disappointing results, the tone around the XV de France remains generally positive, demonstrating the commitment of the French rugby for the" moderates still firm. However, some players have crystallized more criticism. With nearly half of negative comments, "Frederic Michalak and Pascal Pape them suffer a sporting tournament trickier" concludes Synthesio.

* Compared to what it would have cost if Grand Slam (83,270 euros per player). In the same case, the English would have received 115,000 euros each.

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After a bad year in 2011, the number of accidents has decreased in 2012. And this trend continues in 2013, according to the assessments of road safety, with less than 9% of fatalities and 12% of injuries in January.

These figures hope left lower auto insurance rates this year, but it is not. The price index for private insurance, published by the comparator Assurland shows a 2.1% increase in the cost of insurance over the last twelve months. Yet the comparison provided in December 2013 contained up only 1%, driven by competition. He noted then increases by 0.9% in 2012 to Maaf, 1.5% for Axa, 2% Maif and Macdf, Generali 3% and 4% for Swiss Life.

Insurers defend themselves

The number of accidents is not the only factor to play on the evolution of premiums, insurers argue. They evoke the rising cost of repairs made more complex by the invasion of electronics in cars. Victim compensation costs also more expensive insurance: accidents are fewer, but more serious, and therefore the duration of care is growing. Axa, there was an increase in 2012 the average cost of accidents by 2% damage and 5% for bodily injury, a trend already observed in 2011.

Some legal systems also weigh in the balance. Insurers must finance since January 1, 2013 revaluation of pensions paid to victims of road accidents, although it is far from the Guarantee Fund compulsory insurance of damage (FGAO) who took care. Accordingly, Axa evoked a possible late 2012 premium increases from 1.2 to 1.3%. Another measure that could weigh: the equalization of rates between men and women, decided by Court of Justice of the European Union last December. It could lead in 2013 to a leveling up of premium automobiles women.

Another possible explanation although they deny it, with the car insurance offset what they lose elsewhere. The insurance sector in 2012 recorded a turnover down 4%. Life insurance in particular has suffered with withdrawals over the payments of 3.4 billion euros. As auto insurance is mandatory, insurers may be tempted to improve their margins on this side.

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From our correspondent in Washington

Maurice Taylor is well known United States. But only in the world of tire. His outspokenness that shocks the French syndicalists today, is however in the standard of an industrial world of Midwest where the bosses who have made themselves all alone are not afraid to call a cat a cat.

Native of Michigan, aged of 68 years, "Morry» Taylor is respected for his exemplary career. After be past by Michigan Tech, a University of Houghton (Michigan), he is first illustrated for years as seller of wheels. "I followed 257 engineering courses. None me has never served to nothing, "confessed-he in 1996. His stroke of genius goes back to his redemption in 1983 for 6 million dollars of a factory wheels Quincy (Illinois) Undercutting by Firestone. "Some do will see that waste where others will see of gold … When I saw this factory, I understood that it was an opportunity in pure gold of 24 carats ». From this investment, in association with Canadian industrialist Joseph Tanenbaum, Maurice Taylor has mounted an empire, redeeming over the years and worldwide, factories and activities that large groups as Goodyear abandoned.

Renamed Titan International, the group was introduced into scholarship in 1993. He today employs 3,600 people and its turnover approach 2 billion dollars. Maurice Taylor loves say that his style aggressive in respect of Wall Street analysts has earned him the nickname of "Grizzly». But outside of the universe complex and competitive of the tire for agricultural machines and construction vehicles, "Morry» Taylor, is not a star. His remuneration, bonus understood, is modest. It does not exceed 3 million dollars.  

There long as one has forgotten his candidature botched for the Republican nomination in 1996. By spending 6.5 million dollars of his personal fortune, he did receuilli just 1% of voice cons Bob Dole, the candidate of the establishment.

Without complex

The active participation of Maurice Taylor to political debate has decreased in recent years. Its blog has no been updated since October 2010. This is also at this time that was the last whole page he is offered in the daily USA Today for denounce what he judge be "incompetence" of Barack Obama and democrats. His crusade cons the growing role of the State conforms to the republican rhetoric liberal. "Who wants leave at Government 40% of the money that you will earn in outgoing of the school?», Launched-he to a group of high school students in 1996. When a young "at look weird" has lifted hand, Maurice Taylor has replicated from tac at tac: "Note the name of that one. It must be put in a institution and study its brain. He is not human. It is a extra-terrestrial ».

Maurice Taylor is not more diplomat with the U.S. government than it is with Bercy. "Who still believes what recount the politicians? It does mean anything. There has many egos to Washington.

We would be better if we closed it all, "he explained at the beginning of months in a magazine professionals of the tire. He spends weeks visiting tire factories in difficulty on all continents. Sometimes it in redeems a. It negotiates at this moment a taking participation majority in a society of wheels in India, Wheels India Ltd. which account develop its exports to America and Europe. It is far from 2008, epoch where he appellait in its advertisements on television to buy its tires "Made in America». We the see saying: "Put a tire Michelin on a tractor American, is like putting a beret on the head of a cowboy. Put a tire Japanese Firestone on a tractor American, is like making wear a kimono to farmer ".

The "grizzly» do not regret these About. "This is the truth at the time Michelin sold his agricultural tires to loss to United States. In our factories in India, one wants produce for the market local. This is what we do in Brazil also. It is necessary that consumers buy tires facts home ", we explains Maurice Taylor, without complex.

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Black humor, subliminal messages or personal distress … The motives of the agent job center who has posted twelve fictitious offers questionable content remain to be clarified. Time for a weekend, a few imaginary ads have been around the web and fueled the controversy.

Among the ads posted on the official website of the institution of employment in France, the counselor was offered a job shadow "Wizard / mage can create a job, transforming a branch of birch in job various branches, to show the gap between the reality of supply and demand of employment as an illusion, put your skills to job center, and add: Beginner accepted, namely snakes swallow is 1 + , stamp 1 to 100,000 euros. "  

Other examples: "Seeking consultant intelligence able to solve the following proposition: there is no solution, but problems" or offers "Psychiatrist, psychoanalyst, magnetizer … for several vacancies within Pôle Emploi, to treat its employees. Serious diseases. Applications of charlatans and jokers will not study. Type and nature of the contract: CDD two months. "

But humor slips frankly dubious when, just days after the immolation of an unemployed at the end of law to an agency job center in Nantes, post an ad offers a "fire safety officer to intervene on departures fire, prevent the risk of fire. Seat reserved for non-smokers "…

On the Web, the reaction was immediate. On twitter, many users have expressed their incomprehension.  

If you also want to laugh, consult the website of the Pôle Emploi offers Aubigny-sur-Nere low interest rate personal loans… # PôleEmploi twitter.com / ElineSideOut / s

. – ElineSideOut (@ ElineSideOut) February 17, 2013

In short, the employment center of Aubigny-sur-Nere, fun …

– Guy Birenbaum (@ guybirenbaum) February 17, 2013

. @ @ Johnquenelle guybirenbaum @ mistyelodie Yen more! is the internal dispute, Or trollage external password filters?

– Thelonius Monk (@ Monde_de_Droite) February 17, 2013

Counselor far appreciated

But the site has not been the target of a hacker, the ads have been posted by a counselor. A spokeswoman explained that "all counselors are authorized to publish job offers received. All counselors validate their content "without further verification. The latter emphasizes that it is "a first for the institution" which released last year no less than 3 million offers on its site.

Thus, misunderstanding dominates the headquarters of the Institution of employment in France. The spokesman emphasizes that the perpetrator "has long worked for the small agency Cher and is appreciated both by his colleagues as job seekers." Another counselor has taken his post pending clarification of the motives of the agent, and the decision of the institution.

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In times of crisis, the evaluation of employees may turn to the puzzle. Means available to managers are reduced to a trickle: training budget and increases down, freeze internal mobility, generating complex reorganizations in some companies a climate of mistrust … "Assess serenity is more difficult," says Sylvie Brunet, a member of the National Association of HRD (ANDRH) and Director of Social Affairs at Onet.

However, the evaluation issue is still crucial for companies seeking to maintain their results and re-engage their employees. "In companies that go wrong, maintenance is even more important: even if the room for maneuver is limited, this is one of the rare moments when it is possible to explain the meaning of the corporate strategy , to the pedagogy, "she adds.

Listening, the ability to bounce

Crisis requires, means companies are more focused on high-potential employees, they can not afford to lose. Especially when they reorganize, they seek to avoid the best to leave. If 85% of the French employers have reduced or froze their training expenses, according to Accenture, half consider themselves alongside a shortage of talent.

SHL, one of the leaders of the evaluation activity for employees is rising, while focusing on recruitment has completely collapsed. "The talent identification goes a long way to the top of the organization. Today, it also applies to managers and executives. This is a direct consequence of the crisis, "said Stéphane Amiot, director of SHL France and Belgium. Programs targeting sales forces are by far the most requested. "The successful business in times of crisis have qualities – listening, the ability to bounce example – the company wants to encourage," says Stéphane Amiot.

The use of premium

The observation applies not only to commercial. The crisis is more amenable to behavioral assessment, alongside results alone, on which the employee has less grip. "Since 2008-2009, behavioral skills, such as creativity, the ability to communicate or take advantage of a situation, are more prevalent in the evaluation grid," says Jocelyne Ientile-Yalenios, lecturer at EM Strasbourg.

This does not prevent some companies to tighten their requirements in parallel on the achievement of objectives. "The crisis has accelerated the use of premium, strengthened links between performance and variable compensation," says David Guillocheau, managing partner in the consulting firm HR Talentys. The notation is also applied more severe. Illustrated by the example of Atos, which recently considered its employees too highly rated.

So that the evaluation is becoming stressor. "Before the crisis, we were mostly asked to accompany its implementation. But since it occurs mainly because it goes wrong, says Anne-Florence Beauvois, director of Sextant Council, which accompanies the HSC. The interview is not so much an opportunity to talk with his manager that employees plébiscitaient, a way to sort the employees based on their performance. "With the key, sometimes the prospect of layoffs.

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This may be the awareness it takes to François Hollande … According to a study conducted Cecop-CSA for the Circle of investors, two in three French say they are worried about their retirement. Up ten points since 2011. But above attitudes have evolved. While 30% of French people considered "necessary" three years ago to back up to 65 years term the statutory retirement age, 60% are now convinced. A small majority left (52%) is even favorable – that is to say there changes had on the subject. In addition, two-thirds of employees over 50 years in favor of this reform. "As the need is proposed to ten years, many people think to escape," qualify the authors of the study.

The decline in age is in any case far – with another pension calculation on the entire career (and not on the twenty-five best years in the private or the last six months in the public service) – considered as the most "acceptable" by a majority. Please pass it more than 43 years of contributions (41.5 today) to qualify for a full pension and taking into account life expectancy (which disadvantage women) in calculations. Are spread a further increase contributions and especially lower pensions easy to get unsecured personal loans.

"Everything is open"

Pension reform is one of the challenges of 2013, the need for funding has been estimated in December 2020 to 25 billion. An ad hoc committee, a dozen wise, will be installed in the second half of February to make recommendations before the end of June His work as a basis for dialogue that the government will launch at the conference Social July.

"Everything is open, it says at Matignon. There will be a parametric reform to balance diets and pose perhaps the foundation for systemic reform forward. "Najat Belkacem-Vallaud, the government spokesman who had certified a week ago that the transition to a regime by points suffice, may therefore be disallowed. "She spoke a little too quickly," says a close friend of Prime Minister convinced that indexation of pensions, which reflects Jerome Cahuzac, the budget minister, will not either.

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The continuing decline of the yen begins to stir. The Japanese currency, which hovered around 90 yen to the dollar fell to 90.21 yen Friday, its lowest level in two and a half years. Since the arrival of Shinzo Abe as prime minister last month, the yen has lost 4.5% of its value against the greenback. The decline is equally spectacular against the euro.

Behind the raw numbers, hides the harsh reality of the economy. Falling 0.7% unemployment rate in the United States throughout the year 2012 masks a worrying situation: the growth of the U.S. economy is too small to generate real job creation.

The Labor Department said Friday that only 155,000 jobs were created last month, causing a stabilization of the unemployment rate to 7.8%. Overall figures for December are certainly in line with expectations. But unemployment is still far less than 6% observed since the 1990s and which still prevailed until the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The year 2012 has indeed ended on a monthly average of new posts barely higher than the 147,000 reported in 2011 payday advance.

A new even more worrying that monetary and fiscal policies extremely generous practiced in the United States since 2008 are far from producing results in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at virtually zero since 2008, while the U.S. budget deficit still exceeds 7% of GDP. The slight return of growth that has resulted from the summer of 2009 has allowed America to recover only slightly more than half of the 8.8 million jobs disappeared during the "Great Recession".

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