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Economists at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) do not see the evolution of the European economy with optimism. "Industrial activity continues to decline and it remains to be seen whether, in the second half of 2012, growth will become positive, as is widely expected," it said in its monthly report the organization based in Vienna, published Thursday.

OPEC said that political uncertainty on the Old Continent is "higher a few months ago," because the "results of any recent presidential elections in France, the forthcoming parliamentary elections in France and the Netherlands, of new elections likely in Greece and a referendum on the fiscal pact in Ireland. " All factors that lead OPEC to forecast a GDP of the eurozone declined by 0.4% this year, a deterioration compared to the 0.3% decline expected in the previous report.

Drop of oil by 3.9% in April

OPEC, which produces about one third of the world's crude, month after month scrutinizes the state of the international economy. About the United States, the organization of Vienna is rather pleasantly surprised with a "higher growth than expected." U.S. growth forecast unchanged at 2.3% for 2012. With one caveat: the budget deficit will remain around 8% of GDP, above the average of OECD countries, at 5.6%.

Regarding oil, OPEC noted that after three months of increases at the beginning of the year, a barrel of black gold has declined in April, 3.9% for the "reference basket of OPEC ", which stood at 118.18 dollars (against 119.71 dollars per barrel of Brent listed in London, main world market reference).

A decline that has begun to feed for three weeks in the pump prices for French motorists. The increase in OPEC production (mainly provided by Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iraq) has allowed the placing on the market by nearly a million barrels per day (mb / d) on the market since the start of the year.

The estimated global oil demand for 2012 remains virtually unchanged this month, to 88.7 mb / d, up 0.9 mb / d over a year. It is driven by the "stabilization of the U.S. economy" and the closure of all Japanese nuclear power plants.

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Medel, its official name Lucmagn, is a quiet village of 435 souls nestled at 1332 meters altitude, in the heart of the Alps, in the region of the Lukmanierpass (Grisons). Its inhabitants were just as quiet on their heights until a Swiss mining company, a subsidiary of Canadian Gold NV, may disturb their idyll. Under their feet, in fact hides a gold mine. That company then proposed to exploit this in exchange for 40 million Swiss francs, or about 33 million euros. Against all odds, the villagers declined the offer to two-thirds of the population, after a referendum held in early April.

According to Business Insider, the mine in question, located in a vast pine forest in the snowy peaks and valley Medel, to contain about 1.2 billion dollars of precious metals. The U.S. site information reports that the history of the mine clearly divided the inhabitants of the valley. Some would see a tremendous opportunity in the economic deficient, while others – mostly – highlight their concerns about the environmental impact such a project would succeed.

For its part, NV Gold in talks with the mayor of the small town, more than ever determined to steal the treasure buried by the villagers jealously refractory.

 

Nicolas Sarkozy retorted tit for tat. Questioned Tuesday by Anne Lauvergeon in an interview published by L'Express, the Head of State, on Friday invited to iTV, has applied to devalue about the former president of Areva. "All this is of politicking," he judged. "What makes it less credible that Lauvergeon said was that she waited to be put out to challenge a system that she wanted to continue to participate in the first place as president of Areva," Nicolas Sarkozy has argued personal business card.

He also underlined the political commitment of the former CEO, also old Sherpa Mitterrand: "It is now the president of Liberation, with a known commitment to the left". Lauvergeon has headed the supervisory board of the newspaper in July 2011.

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World trade, which grew by 5% by volume in 2011 will increase by only 3.7% this year due to the debt crisis in Europe, the consequences of the tsunami in Japan and floods in Thailand, predicted the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Numbers far from the 13.8% growth recorded in 2010 and also below the average of 5.4% the past 20 years, notes the organization based in Geneva.

Merchandise exports should grow by 2% for developed economies and 5.6% for developing countries, while imports increase by 1 short term personal loan.9% and 6.2% respectively.

The WTO provides a slight improvement in 2013, with growth of world trade by 5.6%, driven by improved economic situation of the United States and Japan. 

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Two Greek citizens seeking nothing less than the cancellation of the debt exchange transaction completed on March 12, which allowed Greece to considerably lighten his burden. A wealthy widow of 76 years and a retired undertook to continue the Greek state court, aggrieved by the restructuring of sovereign debt to their country, they held bonds. The widow puts its losses at around 200,000 euros and 4000 euros retired, or about half of their initial investment. "This is the first time that Greek investors take legal action against the state by asking the court to declare illegal and unconstitutional the decree implementing the debt exchange," said a source at Reuters court.

March 12, Greece is indeed managed to finalize the largest debt restructuring in history. 85% of private creditors – mainly banks, insurance companies and funds – have agreed to exchange their obligations under Greek law against new longer maturity bonds, and a value less than half. A massive turnout, which allowed Greece to force reluctant investors to participate in turn in the exchange, that is to say to make losses. With this agreement, Greece has reduced its debt by 107 billion euros, a total of 350 billion euros. A prerequisite to payment of a new international aid, totaling 130 billion euros, of which Greece was badly needed to meet its deadlines. This debt forgiveness can also expect the country to achieve a ratio of debt to GDP from 120.5% in 2020.

This is the start of "collective action clauses", by which Greece has forced investors reluctant to join the exchange, which is currently being challenged by some of its creditors. 110 of them, a German national, had already announced, following the restructuring, they had hired a law firm to seek redress. This is not so much the outbreak of collective action clauses is disputed, the fact that these clauses have been introduced retroactively. Some creditors believe that the rules were changed along the way, illegally. The judicial process may however take several years. Argentina, who also conducted a decade ago to a partial restructuring of its debt is still within the scope of prosecution.

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Afford its future plan of home sweet home? This allows much freedom. But it's not as simple as buying an old property. Immediately acquire much good reflexes.

• Visit the site, around the field, looking for any nuisance and to ensure accessibility by public transport. Learning about the Internet near schools, nurseries, not forgetting to look at the school map, to see what schools depends housing. If this is a neighborhood in the making, a little investigation to local authorities for capital projects is useful.

• Study the layout plan, submitted by the proponent. "This will see the distance between the track and the building, sidewalks, or from a building behind the one that will be built for example," says Marie- Christine Arnaud, director of residential real estate products to the French REM.

• Ask the seller about the shops provided at the foot of the building. "Upon signing the sales contract, the building regulations will be issued to the purchaser. It may well ensure that the most disturbing activities (eg nightclubs) are prohibited, "says Philippe Jossé, CEO of Bouygues Immobilier France Accommodation.

• Learn about the promoter. "It is interesting to question former clients on programs completed to ensure they have not had any difficulties that delivery times were roughly respected," advises Frederick White, lawyer at UFC Que Choisir.

• Book as early as possible to have a choice. The most coveted apartments (high floor, garden …) are going fast.

• Take out a legal expenses insurance to cover the purchase in the new. This is not the case with all contracts. Insurers usually offer this guarantee as an option (95 euros per year for example Axa Legal protection, plus 139 euros to benefit from high-end contract Résoluo Heritage). This insurance can receive information and advice throughout the project and a support for the procedure in case of trouble.

• Peel the description given by the sponsor. It details the materials, utilities … "Look, for example if the car park access is secure instant payday loan. If you buy the ground floor, installing a burglar retardant glazing is highly recommended: some insurers require their policyholders, "said Marie-Christine Arnaud.

• Think quickly the adjustments that you want to bring in housing. Showers instead of tub? The floor instead of carpet? A closet and more? The proponents plan options that allow people to customize their home, usually at an extra price (manufacturers have preset grids). "These applications are easier to manage if the client informs the promoter upstream of that he wants, "advises Philip Jossé.

• Think about the parking. Some purchasers want two, no other … The sponsor may organize to meet each other.

• Be sensitive to the timeliness of delivery and negotiate the possible acquisition from payment of interest. "Delays due to force majeure (eg bad weather …) are not counted. We must therefore negotiate the contract in the list of cases in which the promoter considers that there is no compensation payable, "says Marie-Christine Arnaud.

• Consider additional costs including legal fees (1.5% to 2% of the purchase price) … Some promoters make offers temporary trade by offering a fee.

• Upon delivery, list the defects and nonconformities in places such reservations and mention on the record. "Otherwise, it is still possible to report to the sponsor by registered letter within one year of receipt of the work," says Frederic Blanc. The proponent shall make the repairs. "If he does not respond within a period of one year from receipt of the work, the buyer can choose the company of his choice to do the work, and send the invoice to the sponsor," says Frederic Blanc. But if it does not honor him, he will go to court to compel.

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In the stakes of companies with cash reserves of the most important, the major U.S. technology companies held the upper hand. 98 billion to Apple in addition to 52 billion from Microsoft, Google's 44 billion or 40 billion of Cisco. These five cumulative 234 billion of cash! And they all have the same problem: what to do with this money?

So much so that they are regularly subjected to a barrage of criticism from all sides: investors, financial analysts, policy and consumer. Very critical of the companies too much debt, analysts do not like to see huge reserves of unused money. They would prefer to see used to finance growth internally or externally.

This is far from true. Microsoft has spent less than 0.14% of its cash reserves in 2011 to finance acquisitions. The problem is that these technology companies are too big to grow: 90% of PCs sold worldwide are already equipped with Microsoft. Their business model does not lend itself to growth operations to increase geographical presence: Microsoft, Apple and Google are already everywhere. They could invest in diversification, but changes in industry are very difficult to manage. Google has spent $ 15 billion last year to buy Motorola and must demonstrate their ability to integrate.

Paradoxically, the distribution of dividends is also an image problem. An unwritten principle of equity markets is that a growth company does not distribute dividends cash advance. The rise of the action sufficient to satisfy the shareholder. The dividend distribution is restricted to mature companies who see their growth slowing. A dividend is a bad sign given to the market.

Consumer discontent

In fact, Microsoft has begun to pay dividends in 2003. Since then, growth has stalled. Cisco has committed to do that in 2010 and Apple, since Monday. They do that and constraints enforced. "On average, the stocks of companies in the S & P 500 offer a yield of 2 to 3%, is an analyst at Merrill Lynch. For Apple, it will be 1.8%. "Having a pile of gold is also a source of tension with the political. Between half and three quarters of reservations technology groups are located outside the United States and they will not repatriate cash because U.S. tax severely penalizes this movement. These groups of high-tech campaigning for abolition of this tax. But they are regularly criticized by American associations who wish to see them spend their money to create jobs in the U.S. and pay taxes in their home country.

Finally, consumers would be able to claim a share of the booty. If Apple has as much cash, it's because its products are very expensive and that its margins are buxom (44.7%). Consumers may therefore require lower prices.

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• Growth downgraded

The European Central Bank (ECB) is now more pessimistic than before about growth in the euro area in 2012. She believes that the activity should decrease slightly, by -0.1%. This figure is actually an average of its forecast range of growth rate, which ranges from -0.5% to +0.3%. "We are seeing signs of stabilization in activity at very low levels," said the ECB president Mario Draghi at a press conference Thursday. Growth should be particularly driven by exports outside the euro area and interest rates low.

While growth has been revised downwards, inflation, it has been revised upward. The ECB expects inflation of 2.4% (above its medium-term target of 2%), against 2% previously, mainly because of energy prices.  

• Assistance to banks: a success

The ECB has conducted since last December, two very large-scale operations to unfreeze credit markets, representing more than 1,000 billion euros in loans to banks in three years. "The first impact of these measures has been positive," welcomed Mario Draghi. Both loans have a giant early return of confidence in the markets, he said in substance, and investors come back in the eurozone: "We find that money market funds, which were the first to flee the euro area there is one and a half. We see, again, the pension funds. We see investment funds. "

He stressed further that many small banks have subscribed to the second loan giant BCE, among them 160 small German institutions no fax payday loans. The latter "are closer to SMEs and banks that have subscribed to the first operation," which could be the harbinger of a credit easing in the real economy, he argued.

Faced with criticism, Mario Draghi said that the massive injections of liquidity into the financial system did not cause a rise in commodity prices. Their surge "began well before the operations of the ECB," he argued.

• States criticized less

"Regarding fiscal consolidation, many governments in the euro area are making progress, welcomed the President of the European Central Bank. The pursuit of fiscal consolidation and full compliance with all commitments remains essential. "Less severe than usual about the fiscal policies pursued by the States, Mario Draghi said that the ECB had done its job with its massive loans banks and the capital needed to take over "the ball is in the hands of governments and other actors, particularly banks, to continue reforms, clean up their balance sheets so they can continue to support – especially banks – the recovery. "

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The Airbus' parent company is well equipped to write a new chapter in its young history began in 2000. The good financial results 2011en testify, as the change of direction, expected in late May. Louis Welsh, CEO of EADS, will transfer his seat to Thomas Enders, current president of Airbus, which will succeed Bregier, CEO of the manufacturer.

"I am proud that this change will be held peacefully. It allows the new team to come up with fresh ideas without interference (…). The new team is experienced and has contributed greatly to the strengthening of EADS. I wish him the best throughout this exceptional journey, "said Louis Welsh Thursday.

"The results are very good. The increase in operating profit (EBIT) is due to Airbus. This, thanks to a cocktail effect volume, price increases on the family A 320 and A 330 and productivity gains, "said Yan Derocles, aerospace analyst at Oddo. "Under the mandate of Louis Welsh, priority was placed on the protection of cash. Tomas Enders will end up with a good gold mine that could probably use more freely, "says the analyst. "The net cash advances with customers provides leverage for operations of external growth ambitions." The market celebrated EADS: the title soared over 8% in the Paris Bourse.

Investor enthusiasm also suggests they do not believe that EADS may return to the sport – as was the case between 2004 and 2006 – outside interests. This, despite the attempt by the "coordinator" of the German government aerospace, Peter Hintze, who wrote to Thomas Enders.

"A balance between France and Germany"

In short, Berlin is concerned about the changeover from the center of gravity of EADS in Toulouse with its negative consequences for the German sites. "This letter is inappropriate. We make decisions based on the sole interest of EADS while maintaining a balance between France and Germany. We will continue and we will resist outside interference, "said Louis Welsh.

After this clarification, he conceded that all states share this through. And more so with EADS it has many links with European states, both customers and providers of program funding in the form of repayable advances.

Still, the proposal of Thomas Enders to its Toulouse headquarters arouses emotion in the Paris headquarters, boulevard de Montmorency, with 300 employees, and the German headquarters, based in Munich, with its 350 employees. "Louis had the same idea but it's Tom who realized," says one German source. But it is far from a radical decision: none of the two seats will close. "Human resources and finance, which are common in EADS and Airbus, will be based in Toulouse. For other functions, Tom will discuss case by case to see what is most rational, "says one.

It seems certain that Marwan Lahoud, Chief Operating Officer of EADS strategy and marketing, and his teams remain in Paris. Especially as the strongman of the third group is tipped to lead EADS France and be the representative of the group at the political, institutional and government French.

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