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With these new prévisions1 could not be more bleak for 2013 and 2014, the renegotiation of the UI convention to be held at the end of the year looks complex. The stakes are high: it will not be to plug an economic hole – the deficit will reach 5.6 billion UNEDIC end of 2014, a record year on year – but to curb bleeding endless with cumulative deficit of more than $ 24 billion on that date. The equivalent of the Ministry of Research annual budget!

And for good reason: social partners, negotiating every three years the conditions for unemployment benefits, do not agree on remedies to be made. The unions do not want to revolutionize the rules, and in particular the principle of "one day paid a compensation day" established in 2009 and the opening from 4 months contribution of the right to be compensated. All, without exception, consider the return to growth will be sufficient to bring forward the accounts in the green. "The finances of UNEDIC are highly reactive to any downturn," says an official of the regime. But a turnaround is not expected until 2017 at best

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The government – which transposes into law the agreement the social partners reach – does not intend to endorse a drastic reform of compensation, while the number of unemployed explodes (300,000 + in a year). Politically too dangerous, especially for a Socialist executive already criticized by the left wing.

After Tuesday night, the preparatory meeting with the social partners in the social conference in late June, Jean-Marc Ayrault2 has also said that one of the issues in the negotiations would "know collectively address situations such as the purpose of law. " 750,000 unemployed or those who find themselves deprived of compensation each year and tipped into the social minimum. In short, the opposite of a drastic reform to rebalance accounts permanently in the red.

Too generous system

Employers is not all on the same wavelength. Considering the system too généreux3 (up to 6200 euros monthly income and 36 months of allocation), employers want instead revisit in depth the conditions of compensation, including restoring a gradual reduction of benefits to encourage the unemployed to take more a job quickly. All candidates for president of MEDEF – co-chair, alternating with the CFDT, UNEDIC – point in that direction. Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux4, president of UNEDIC for two years on behalf of the MEDEF, and Pierre Gattaz5, the two favorites, and want to limit the amount of 2000 euros monthly allowance and a full year benefit period. A casus belli for the unions … Their goal is to correct two annexes structurally in the red: the intermittent and technicians show (1 billion deficit each year) and the less well-known cross-border ($ 1.5 billion). Again, red cloths for trade unions (with the exception of the CFDT), but also for the government, which has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to these annexes expensive

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If you are like me, then you are looking for a cheap health insurance plan, or at least to reduce what you are already paying.

 

This would be the second single strike at the SNCF since the election of François Hollande. The four organizations representing the public company (CGT, UNSA, SOUTH CFDT) on Friday filed a request for an immediate consultation. A mandatory procedure before filing a notice of strike. However, Les Echos reported that Saturday1, "at the beginning, they had already announced in a joint leaflet an" action all services unit in June 2013. " Which suggests that the strike will be held Thursday, June 13, 2013.

The unions want to denounce the railway reform and problems purchasing power rail can be read on the website of France Info2. The movement would be followed as the previous, say unions, who find that "the malaise goes."

Society and the state are in full reflection to improve the operational efficiency of the French railway system and eliminate its debt. Two reports on the subject were made in April 3: they both offer a return of all the orders of the State SNCF4 cash advance. A bill will be introduced in a few months.

Meanwhile, in March, the company announced that the railway will make between 1.5 and 2 billion in savings over the next five years. Which in addition to a plan to reduce costs of purchasing, IT spending … 700 million by 2015 already announced a few months ago.

An uncertain 2013 for SNCF

For the year 2012, the SNCF has posted "satisfactory" results in his boss Guillaume Pepy, who has renewed his mandat5 at the head of the company railways for five years. In 2012, the turnover of the Group increased by 3% compared with 2011 to € 33.8 billion. Better, its net profit tripled to EUR 383 million. And debt decreased by EUR 1 billion to 7.3 billion.

Nevertheless, the year 2013 will be difficult with large work Ile-de-France that will disrupt the quality of service, the economy still fragile and budget authorities, including those allocated to transport, which still suffer the crisis of public finances in France and Europe.

 

Director of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), political scientist Ulrike Guérot specializes in European issues and connoisseur Franco-German relations.

LE FIGARO. – What is the state of the Franco-German relationship today?

Ulrike Guérot. – There is tension, but it is when the couple quarrel! Do not idealize the past periods, which were not nearly as pink as they say. The creation of the euro was a Seven Years War! We fought and it was constructive. Symbiosis, as in 1 and Merkel Sarkozy was stifling for the rest of Europe. But beware, the Franco-German crisis is constructive if there is a political will to resolve and make a deal that gives air to other countries out

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Do you break something constructive between Paris and Berlin at the moment?

It is true that at this moment you have to dig far down the tunnel to see the light! The task is enormous. The first emergency, these are the reforms in France. Because France has lost its structural parity with Germany. As a result, it becomes difficult for it to enforce its views. To make its voice heard within the Franco-German couple and Europe, it must be straightened out economically.

To date it when you drop the Franco-German?

Based on macroeconomic data, it dates from 2007. In 2003, France and Germany have all violated the Stability Pact. Germany took the opportunity to make the reforms that are needed. France, she did nothing of the sort.

Germany agrees to give two more years to France to meet the 3% deficit. Berlin he renounces his principles of rigor?

No! It's like a gift that makes Germany to France. It must use this respite of two years to reform and prove that it is a serious country. Since Germany has decided to abandon the D-Mark in 1992, it expected that France wakes embraces the enlargement of the EU, globalization, and launches the debate on the future of Europe, it stopped in 2005 after the "no" to the European Constitution.

Why such a gift to France?

As for Germany, France is a special case. This is not Cyprus2 nor Greece3. Against France, Germany was out of respect. In this crisis, France is "systemic" if it skids financially and economically, it is dangerous for Germany and the rest of the euro zone

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Germany Does not concerned that France take this time to do nothing?

There was this fear. But there is also hope that Holland make reforms, as Mitterrand was able to do in 1982-83. There is no alternative to survive in globalization.

What are the most awaited reforms Berlin today?

Germany expects a new pension reform, the abandonment of 35 hours, a further reform of the labor market, social security and sanitation deficits. It must do all that southern countries of Europe have done. And do not put as a prerequisite for its reforms pooling of eurozone debt! This is France to take the first step today. This is the condition for the revival of Europe. It also requires that Germany do more efforts on domestic demand and wages. This is a reciprocal movement. It should be a summary of a European social contract.

 

Thunder in Saint-Nazaire! The Korean group STX Offshore and Shipbuilding 1a Friday in Seoul that it plans to sell its shipyards in France, Finland and China in the debt-reduction plan of the parent STX Corp.. "We are currently reviewing the structure of our society to focus on the domestic shipbuilding," said a spokesman for the South Korean group. "In this context, we are considering the sale of foreign assets to raise new cash."

So, these are the former sites of the Atlantic are found in unstable equilibrium. Indeed, STX Offshore controls 66% stake in these projects, with the remainder held by the French State. STX France officials refused to comment Friday evening on a possible sale of these assets. These financial problems are not a surprise to the employees of the Group to the extent that the need to restructure its debt was public knowledge. In fact, STX Corp has been weakened by the slowdown in global shipbuilding market.

The Government assures steps follow the situation of shipyards in Saint-Nazaire "close." This Saturday, the Minister of Economy, Pierre Moscovici, reiterated his "commitment to the Atlantic Yards" and its intention to "keep the job and excellence." "We will always" turn, assured the minister. Then it was Arnaud Montebourg, Minister of Productive Recovery, which states that nationalization without control would be useless. "Nationalization is a pragmatic, not ideological tool," said the World Arnaud Montebourg, recalling that the working tool of these projects is "efficient", but the main problem remains the lack of orders.

Unions expect an increase in the participation of the state in yards beyond the 33% it currently holds. The Socialist Senator de la Loire, Yannick Vaugrenard, had also requested the government side now organize a round table with French manufacturers who might be interested in a possible takeover. According to STX, potential buyers have already come forward to take over a part of its shipyards in Europe. "We will see more in the second half of this year," said a spokesman.  

The staff refused to time to sink into pessimism, since STX France recorded in December a historical control nearly one billion euros for a ship commanded by an American company, Royal Caribbean International. This debt reduction, if it is started, should not deprive the shipyards in Saint-Nazaire fighting regularly to get orders.

The final agreement reached at the end of last year even led to a skirmish between France and Finland2. The Finnish government, the shipyards were in competition with those of Saint-Nazaire for the construction of a giant cruise ship for Royal Caribbean Cruise Line owner, went to ask the European Commission to determine whether the rules competition had been met.

 

A few months of respite! The record of 3.195 million unemployed in category A, dated January 1997, was not passed by the end of February 2013 the Ministry of Labour. At nearly 7800 … It is nevertheless true that unemployment was a 23rd month of increases, with a further increase of 18,400 job seekers, perhaps two and a half times lower than in January 3187 but which leads to .700 enrollment in the reference category employment center. And also the number of 260,100 new unemployed since the election of François Holland in May. Or nine months, about a third of the increase recorded across the quinquennium of Nicolas Sarkozy.

"This increase is part of a trend in reality for nearly five years," said Michel Sapin in a statement, with supporting figures. If we add job seekers engaged in a Pool (part-time jobs), "is rising continuously since May 2008, for 57 months," attack against the Labour Minister hints referring to the responsibility This further increases the legacy Sarkozy.

"General Mobilization"

"I call for a general mobilization for employment", for his part, urged Jean-Marc Ayrault during the session of the current issues in government. And including "communities, associations, the world of social and solidarity economy" that must seize funded jobs (jobs of the future, assisted contracts …) that the government has put at their disposal. But also companies, called mass recruit young people (and retain senior employment) through the generation contract (500,000 are scheduled throughout the five-year period), even now apply for the tax credit competitiveness unveiled in November.

For the first results of the policy to be felt soon low fee payday loans. The jobs of the future, the commitment of 34 François Hollande during the presidential campaign, including struggling to take off. In five months, only 15,000 (about 100,000 this year) have been filled. 15% of the target. "The rise of this device is slow but it is certainly faster than for youth employment in 1997," says an employee of Michel Sapin. "Many actions have been taken but the results will be visible in a few months," cautions his side Aquilino Morelle, the political adviser to President.

François Hollande reaffirms his promise

This announcement does not, however, more credible promise, reiterated Tuesday by François Hollande, a reversal of the unemployment curve by the end of the year. "This is not simply a matter of belief, it is a desire, a goal and I will stand there," insisted the head of state.

With sluggish growth and weak recovery hopes among our European partners, the trend is still a strong increase in the number of job seekers in 2013. The unemployment insurance system has even estimated 185,000 over the entire year. Either deduction increases in January and February, nearly 125,000 unemployed who will register at employment center by 31 December. Not really sense a trend reversal

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Saturday night, the NRJ Music Awards organized by NRJ Group and broadcast on TF1 led by Nikos Aliagas have set a new record for social TV in France. During the ceremony, more than 700,000 tweets were exchanged on the social network Twitter. The previous record was 450,000 tweets for Miss France 2013 December 9, 2012.

# Missfrance and 450,000 tweets RT @ maximepannetier already dethroned: nearly 700,000 tweets around # NMA13, record socialTv # # TF1

– Philippe bailly (@ pbailly) January 27, 2013

The cérémomie which established the Korean singer Psy and French rap group Sexion d'Assaut was also a ratings success on TF1. With nearly 6.4 million viewers, the program brought together an audience share of 30.5%, well above the monthly average of the chain that culminates today to 23.1%.

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The British economy flirts with recession a third after those of 2008 and 2011-2012. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2012. Growth was zero over the entire year. This return to a negative trend comes after a strong rebound in the third quarter, driven by the impact of the Olympics. Technically, two consecutive negative quarters define a recession. However, according to economists, the beginning of 2013 has been affected by the consequences of the snow.

"The best way to describe the British economy at the moment is: fragile but stable. UK evolves around a stagnation line "analysis Rob Wood, an economist at Berenberg Bank. The head of the Bank of England expects a "modest recovery" this year. The IMF reduced its growth forecast for the UK than 1%. Several major retail chains, including HMV, Comet, Jessops and JJB Sports, recently placed in bankruptcy.

"Plan B"

This performance-cons is a blow to the government of David Cameron, who continues to assert that its austerity plan begins to bear fruit. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said on Thursday it was time to relax fiscal austerity to boost growth. The Liberal Democrats, Conservatives partners in the ruling coalition, advocating for a "plan B" and recognize that the government has cut too much in investment.

But the Minister of Economy, George Osborne repeated that there is no question of deviating from its objectives. According to him, it would be "a huge mistake to question" the credibility of the country's budget cuts. This does not prevent him from coming face the risk of losing precious AAA rating.

Following this announcement, the pound has accelerated its fall, dropping to its lowest level in six months against the dollar for more than a year against the euro.

"This is a reminder that Britain faces a difficult situation," admitted George Osborne, commenting on the figures for the fourth quarter. The government can console themselves with the continued decline in unemployment, which now stands at 7.7% of the active population.

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The Belgian press had already revealed last September that Bernard Arnault was created in late 2008 a foundation in Belgium, called Protectinvest in order to prepare his succession. We now know more about the installation developed by Emperor luxury.

December 7, 2011, the billionaire has transferred 31% of the share capital of Groupe Arnault – the holding company that owns interests of the family, including the one that assures control of LVMH – the Belgian Pilinvest said Thursday liberation. The usufruct of 48.5% owned by Groupe Arnault her five children in bare ownership was also housed in Pilinvest. It is indeed, said the entourage of the CEO of LVMH, to "ensure the continuity and integrity of the group in case of accidental death," and in particular to avoid that one or the other heirs unilaterally decides to sell its shares.

No tool comparable legal in France

In this case, the shares tendered to Pilinvest be transferred to the foundation Protectinvest, which would retain until 2023, by which time the last of five children of Bernard Arnault, born to two weddings will take 25 years. It is only at this point that all the descendants of Bernard Arnault may freely dispose of their shares. The "regency" says Liberation is meanwhile assured by a "committee of wise men" of three persons, chaired by former Minister of Economy and current CEO of Atos Origin, Thierry Breton.  

Belgian foundations can also make donations to his children, taxed at only 3%. But to benefit, should that Bernard Arnault and his heirs are Belgian tax residents. Or, "I am and remain fiscally domiciled in France," he declared in September. His entourage ensures that this device has no reason tax that the estate will be settled in France and there pay his inheritance. The only reason for this arrangement is that there is no tool in France comparable legal foundations Belgian says spokesman Bernard Arnault.

This information, however, may revive the controversy around the first fortune in France, including the request of the Franco-Belgian dual nationality is also still under investigation.

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LE FIGARO. – You return from China. What is the perception of our partners in France?

Pierre Moscovici. – I have noticed with my Chinese counterparts very close attention to our economic situation and, more generally, that of the euro area. During my interview with Mr. Li Keqiang, the future prime minister, I was the first Union Minister of Finance to meet, I heard a message of confidence, but also the expectation of concrete results of our actions. I invited them to fully appreciate the advantages of France and invest in our economy.

The government held a seminar on Thursday investments. How to stimulate while state coffers are empty?

The priority of the Head of State is the inversion of the curve of unemployment by the end of the year. Boost investment is at the heart of our strategy to achieve this. We have established a very favorable to private investment, stabilizing the euro area and by launching our pact for competitiveness. Housing, renovation thermal transport infrastructure and deployment of very high speed have been identified as our top priorities. It is now to direct savings to the French abundant future investments. As stated by the Prime Minister, public resources will be redeployed towards these goals. The roadmap is drawn and the seminar enabled the mobilization of the government in this direction.

The opposition accuses you of being vague on reducing public spending. What do you say?

We are committed to reducing public spending 56.3% of the national wealth in 2012 to 53.1% of GDP in 2017. The French expect that the public participates in the national effort to rehabilitate the country. This is voluntary, and there is no question of bias. The objective is clear, 60 billion by the end of the quinquennium. In this context, it is already in the budget, numerous examples, and each minister is in charge of preparing the necessary reforms.

The State is exemplary. Thus, in 2013, operating expenses will decline by 5%, including reducing communication expenses, reorganizing its major networks (sub-prefectures network abroad), controlling its payroll. A review of major investments is in progress. We will train and, by example, all stakeholders, including operators of the State, local authorities and social security administrations in the modernization of public action.

Our method is based on consultation and facing the user, is different from that of our forefathers. I estimate more efficient and fair. Cut with an ax, as did the previous government through RGPP creates blockages and resistances that are missing the mark.

The new contribution substitute tax at 75% for income in excess of a million Will it temporary or permanent? The government has sent mixed messages in recent days about it

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In exceptional circumstances, exceptional effort: this is the philosophy. The new contribution will take the spirit of the tax to 75%, while respecting the principles laid down by the Constitutional Council. We will present in the next few weeks, so that economic actors are set. I would add that the reasons for the tax exile are not due to such a device. Taxation is not everything: at the time of the tax shield at 50% right, yet there were 700 departures per year. And then to find the attractiveness French, we also restore our tax base, renegotiating our conventions. We're working on.

Expect the discussion in Spring with Brussels on the issue of growth and public finances to admit that France will not its commitment to reduce its deficit to 3% of GDP this year?

If I now believe that growth will not reach 0.8% as we expect, I would have said. Uncertainties are high, of course, but I note that some changes – the agreement on the U.S. budget, the prospects for growth in China, the solutions to the euro zone – are positive. Our actions to restore France's competitiveness and defend domestic consumption also support growth. Even though the beginning of the year is difficult, there is no question of giving any signal that today might suggest that our desire to reduce our deficit to 3% weakening. That said, it is also necessary that the Europeans are questioning how to get more growth, as the IMF and OECD invite us.

Were you a candidate for the presidency of the Eurogroup?

I've never been a candidate. My name was mentioned by some – which is an honor – but the task was entrusted to me is to be Minister of Economy and Finance of France, in a period of crisis, and this task is heavy. Incidentally, I read here and there that I could leave the government to take over the presidency of the Eurogroup, which is absolutely false. In my mind, the president of the institution must be a minister in office. What matters to me is that the ideas and designs of France on the future of the euro area are heard by the future president, particularly with regard to the banking union, it must continue the integrity of the euro area, which must be preserved, and growth policies, it is essential to carry. I told Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

You have caused confusion by stating that to overcome its difficulties, the automaker PSA should "go further". What do you mean by that?

Do not distort my words! PSA, which has sold more than 3 million cars in 2012, is in a difficult situation. To cope, the group has launched a strategic partnership with GM. He drives a socially painful, we worked to contain, and graduated from the State guarantee on its banking subsidiary. In this context, PSA has given assurances of its production in France, particularly in the Rennes plant and appointed Louis Gallois, the Commissioner of the investment to its supervisory board. To recover, PSA undoubtedly deepen its strategic thinking, but it's a private company and, as such, it is up to her to make choices as it deems advisable. I believe there is a place for PSA on the world market. With regard to the guarantee provided by the State for its banking subsidiary, I am quite confident about the progress of the discussions we have with Brussels.

CEO of EDF, Henri Proglio, subject to an investigation by the Financial Inspection on how contracts were obtained in China. Him hold your confidence?

It is not an investigation or questioning existing partnerships with China, which I saw during my visit to Beijing that they were of vital importance in the eyes of our stakeholders government. It is a mission control. As a state shareholder, our duty is to ensure that our strategic choices are preserved in the negotiations. This procedure is not more Mr. Proglio. The government's intention is not to jeopardize the future of a partnership with China that has lasted thirty years, or find a pretext to change the governance of the company. We just want to better understand the operation of the nuclear industry. This mission – we should have the results within three months – will help.

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Behind the raw numbers, hides the harsh reality of the economy. Falling 0.7% unemployment rate in the United States throughout the year 2012 masks a worrying situation: the growth of the U.S. economy is too small to generate real job creation.

The Labor Department said Friday that only 155,000 jobs were created last month, causing a stabilization of the unemployment rate to 7.8%. Overall figures for December are certainly in line with expectations. But unemployment is still far less than 6% observed since the 1990s and which still prevailed until the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The year 2012 has indeed ended on a monthly average of new posts barely higher than the 147,000 reported in 2011 payday advance.

A new even more worrying that monetary and fiscal policies extremely generous practiced in the United States since 2008 are far from producing results in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at virtually zero since 2008, while the U.S. budget deficit still exceeds 7% of GDP. The slight return of growth that has resulted from the summer of 2009 has allowed America to recover only slightly more than half of the 8.8 million jobs disappeared during the "Great Recession".

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