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With these new prévisions1 could not be more bleak for 2013 and 2014, the renegotiation of the UI convention to be held at the end of the year looks complex. The stakes are high: it will not be to plug an economic hole – the deficit will reach 5.6 billion UNEDIC end of 2014, a record year on year – but to curb bleeding endless with cumulative deficit of more than $ 24 billion on that date. The equivalent of the Ministry of Research annual budget!

And for good reason: social partners, negotiating every three years the conditions for unemployment benefits, do not agree on remedies to be made. The unions do not want to revolutionize the rules, and in particular the principle of "one day paid a compensation day" established in 2009 and the opening from 4 months contribution of the right to be compensated. All, without exception, consider the return to growth will be sufficient to bring forward the accounts in the green. "The finances of UNEDIC are highly reactive to any downturn," says an official of the regime. But a turnaround is not expected until 2017 at best

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The government – which transposes into law the agreement the social partners reach – does not intend to endorse a drastic reform of compensation, while the number of unemployed explodes (300,000 + in a year). Politically too dangerous, especially for a Socialist executive already criticized by the left wing.

After Tuesday night, the preparatory meeting with the social partners in the social conference in late June, Jean-Marc Ayrault2 has also said that one of the issues in the negotiations would "know collectively address situations such as the purpose of law. " 750,000 unemployed or those who find themselves deprived of compensation each year and tipped into the social minimum. In short, the opposite of a drastic reform to rebalance accounts permanently in the red.

Too generous system

Employers is not all on the same wavelength. Considering the system too généreux3 (up to 6200 euros monthly income and 36 months of allocation), employers want instead revisit in depth the conditions of compensation, including restoring a gradual reduction of benefits to encourage the unemployed to take more a job quickly. All candidates for president of MEDEF – co-chair, alternating with the CFDT, UNEDIC – point in that direction. Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux4, president of UNEDIC for two years on behalf of the MEDEF, and Pierre Gattaz5, the two favorites, and want to limit the amount of 2000 euros monthly allowance and a full year benefit period. A casus belli for the unions … Their goal is to correct two annexes structurally in the red: the intermittent and technicians show (1 billion deficit each year) and the less well-known cross-border ($ 1.5 billion). Again, red cloths for trade unions (with the exception of the CFDT), but also for the government, which has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to these annexes expensive

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This would be the second single strike at the SNCF since the election of François Hollande. The four organizations representing the public company (CGT, UNSA, SOUTH CFDT) on Friday filed a request for an immediate consultation. A mandatory procedure before filing a notice of strike. However, Les Echos reported that Saturday1, "at the beginning, they had already announced in a joint leaflet an" action all services unit in June 2013. " Which suggests that the strike will be held Thursday, June 13, 2013.

The unions want to denounce the railway reform and problems purchasing power rail can be read on the website of France Info2. The movement would be followed as the previous, say unions, who find that "the malaise goes."

Society and the state are in full reflection to improve the operational efficiency of the French railway system and eliminate its debt. Two reports on the subject were made in April 3: they both offer a return of all the orders of the State SNCF4 cash advance. A bill will be introduced in a few months.

Meanwhile, in March, the company announced that the railway will make between 1.5 and 2 billion in savings over the next five years. Which in addition to a plan to reduce costs of purchasing, IT spending … 700 million by 2015 already announced a few months ago.

An uncertain 2013 for SNCF

For the year 2012, the SNCF has posted "satisfactory" results in his boss Guillaume Pepy, who has renewed his mandat5 at the head of the company railways for five years. In 2012, the turnover of the Group increased by 3% compared with 2011 to € 33.8 billion. Better, its net profit tripled to EUR 383 million. And debt decreased by EUR 1 billion to 7.3 billion.

Nevertheless, the year 2013 will be difficult with large work Ile-de-France that will disrupt the quality of service, the economy still fragile and budget authorities, including those allocated to transport, which still suffer the crisis of public finances in France and Europe.

The patriarch of one of the most important families of Italian fashion, Ottavio Missoni, died today at his home in Sumirago in the Lombardy countryside. Born February 7, 1921 in Yugoslavia, this former Olympic athlete – he attended the London Games of 1948 – had co-founded the Missoni home with his wife Rosita, heir to a family of textile industrialists. In the 1950s, the couple away the use of machines to make shawls and created a line of knitwear motley, the famous multicolored zigzags, winning the favor of the press. They set up their factory Sumirago in the late 1960s and soon the small artisan label knits international fame. Missoni is a classic ready-to-wear Italian, develops accessories, fragrances, beachwear, sign line design decorates hotels and multiplies co-brandings (Converse, the American brand Target brand Bugaboo). Their daughter Angela is currently artistic director of fashion. In January, the family had been under the spotlight when the plane carrying the eldest son of Ottavio, Vittorio (General Manager marketing of the house) and his wife had gone off Venezuela1. Ottavio Missoni was 92 years old, he published his memoirs in 2011 in Italian, Paolo Scandaletti under the title A Life on the yarn (Ed. Rizzoli).

Thunder in Saint-Nazaire! The Korean group STX Offshore and Shipbuilding 1a Friday in Seoul that it plans to sell its shipyards in France, Finland and China in the debt-reduction plan of the parent STX Corp.. "We are currently reviewing the structure of our society to focus on the domestic shipbuilding," said a spokesman for the South Korean group. "In this context, we are considering the sale of foreign assets to raise new cash."

So, these are the former sites of the Atlantic are found in unstable equilibrium. Indeed, STX Offshore controls 66% stake in these projects, with the remainder held by the French State. STX France officials refused to comment Friday evening on a possible sale of these assets. These financial problems are not a surprise to the employees of the Group to the extent that the need to restructure its debt was public knowledge. In fact, STX Corp has been weakened by the slowdown in global shipbuilding market.

The Government assures steps follow the situation of shipyards in Saint-Nazaire "close." This Saturday, the Minister of Economy, Pierre Moscovici, reiterated his "commitment to the Atlantic Yards" and its intention to "keep the job and excellence." "We will always" turn, assured the minister. Then it was Arnaud Montebourg, Minister of Productive Recovery, which states that nationalization without control would be useless. "Nationalization is a pragmatic, not ideological tool," said the World Arnaud Montebourg, recalling that the working tool of these projects is "efficient", but the main problem remains the lack of orders.

Unions expect an increase in the participation of the state in yards beyond the 33% it currently holds. The Socialist Senator de la Loire, Yannick Vaugrenard, had also requested the government side now organize a round table with French manufacturers who might be interested in a possible takeover. According to STX, potential buyers have already come forward to take over a part of its shipyards in Europe. "We will see more in the second half of this year," said a spokesman.  

The staff refused to time to sink into pessimism, since STX France recorded in December a historical control nearly one billion euros for a ship commanded by an American company, Royal Caribbean International. This debt reduction, if it is started, should not deprive the shipyards in Saint-Nazaire fighting regularly to get orders.

The final agreement reached at the end of last year even led to a skirmish between France and Finland2. The Finnish government, the shipyards were in competition with those of Saint-Nazaire for the construction of a giant cruise ship for Royal Caribbean Cruise Line owner, went to ask the European Commission to determine whether the rules competition had been met.

The European Commission on Thursday ordered the SNCM1 (Societe Nationale Corse Méditerranée) to reimburse the French State € 220 million of public aid found to be incompatible with European competition rules, bad news for the shipping company difficulties financières payday loan lenders.Dans the same time, the Commission has recognized the public service mission of service to Corsica by SNCM from Marseille. "Part of poker around the company SNCM2" Storm Warning for SNCM3

For several months, the job market also tends frame. The whole of 2013, the services of the Apec predict a market decline of about 5%, with a range of recruitment between 162,000 and 178,000 people. However, the unemployment rate for white collar should remain below 5%.

Behind these figures altogether favorable, there are winners and losers, and markets at different speeds. "Today, all employers dream of having them around frames with three to ten years of experience in the trade," said Fabien Stut flatly, deputy general manager of recruitment firm Hays. For other populations frameworks, however, the situation is much darker. "The most affected will certainly graduates this year, but people still wanted engineers, and still older, but this is not a novelty," says Frédéric Benay, Senior Executive Director at Michael Page. A situation related to driving "short-termist" employers whose business visibility is almost zero now and who do not take risks.

Experts in high demand profiles

Another observation: as the market is primarily supported by the replacement (turnover, retirement …) and not by the creation of jobs, recruitment are almost exclusively on expert profiles, regardless of trades and industries. Result, candidates are missing and it is difficult to convince them to leave their current position.

"The paradox is that in a range of sectors and occupations, employers can not find anyone," says Fabien Stut. Examples in auditing and accounting, the unemployment rate is 2%. In finance, there is a shortage of candidates on the functions of consolidation. Even in construction, on some very specific lines of business, recruitment for engineers are hard work, economists or engineers building structures.

As for the "engines" of executive recruitment, such as computer, the boot does not fall, even if the trend is a little less dynamic. "Everything comes to outsourcing of functions has the wind in its sails," said Frédéric Benay at Michael Page. As proof, Sopra, specializing in technology consulting, announced this year more than 2012 recruitments: 2,500 in total, including 1,600 in France. "Sopra Group recruits both graduates bac + 5 and more experienced profiles without stands a level of experience rather than another," says one.

Director of Human Resources at MAAF Assurances, Véronique Jolly does not fits in this scheme – beginners, advanced, seniors. "We have a recruitment plan that allows us to talk to all areas of the company and all the employee profiles. So we appeal to both young graduates, experienced managers, but also for seniors, because we are part of the technical issues, "she says. The mutual group, which has 7,300 employees in 2013 shows a recruitment plan external CDI 300 people, with hundreds of new posts, plus a level of internal mobility of 700 employees. The insurance specialist deploys a parallel plan hires 350 CSD and sixty contracts.

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A few months of respite! The record of 3.195 million unemployed in category A, dated January 1997, was not passed by the end of February 2013 the Ministry of Labour. At nearly 7800 … It is nevertheless true that unemployment was a 23rd month of increases, with a further increase of 18,400 job seekers, perhaps two and a half times lower than in January 3187 but which leads to .700 enrollment in the reference category employment center. And also the number of 260,100 new unemployed since the election of François Holland in May. Or nine months, about a third of the increase recorded across the quinquennium of Nicolas Sarkozy.

"This increase is part of a trend in reality for nearly five years," said Michel Sapin in a statement, with supporting figures. If we add job seekers engaged in a Pool (part-time jobs), "is rising continuously since May 2008, for 57 months," attack against the Labour Minister hints referring to the responsibility This further increases the legacy Sarkozy.

"General Mobilization"

"I call for a general mobilization for employment", for his part, urged Jean-Marc Ayrault during the session of the current issues in government. And including "communities, associations, the world of social and solidarity economy" that must seize funded jobs (jobs of the future, assisted contracts …) that the government has put at their disposal. But also companies, called mass recruit young people (and retain senior employment) through the generation contract (500,000 are scheduled throughout the five-year period), even now apply for the tax credit competitiveness unveiled in November.

For the first results of the policy to be felt soon low fee payday loans. The jobs of the future, the commitment of 34 François Hollande during the presidential campaign, including struggling to take off. In five months, only 15,000 (about 100,000 this year) have been filled. 15% of the target. "The rise of this device is slow but it is certainly faster than for youth employment in 1997," says an employee of Michel Sapin. "Many actions have been taken but the results will be visible in a few months," cautions his side Aquilino Morelle, the political adviser to President.

François Hollande reaffirms his promise

This announcement does not, however, more credible promise, reiterated Tuesday by François Hollande, a reversal of the unemployment curve by the end of the year. "This is not simply a matter of belief, it is a desire, a goal and I will stand there," insisted the head of state.

With sluggish growth and weak recovery hopes among our European partners, the trend is still a strong increase in the number of job seekers in 2013. The unemployment insurance system has even estimated 185,000 over the entire year. Either deduction increases in January and February, nearly 125,000 unemployed who will register at employment center by 31 December. Not really sense a trend reversal

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Adjusting their domestic help or tutoring in January, although the French found that the bill had risen. The fault lies in the reform of social security contributions plans help home reform passed in late 2012 and effective this year. PS The majority has decided to abolish the words of 'package'. This allowed private employers to pay lower payroll taxes, contributions are still sitting on the level of the minimum wage, even when used at home was paid beyond the minimum wage. He departed from the traditional rule called "the real", which means that contributions after the salary. Approximately one third of households using the services the person was followers of the package. These 700,000 to 800,000 homes now have to pay payroll taxes related to earnings.

However, all are not penalized. Indeed, while removing the package, the government introduced in 2013 a reduction of social charges € 0.75 per hour worked. In other words, he has given with one hand he took the other. But only in part. Because the higher the salary the employee is away from home minimum wage, plus the disappearance of the package is detrimental. "If you pay using less than 8.20 euros net per hour, the reduction of 0,75 euro compensates the end of the package. For higher wages, it is no longer the case, "says Marie-Béatrice Levaux, President FEPEM (Federation of particular employers France). The problem is that many benefits are paid more than 8.20 euros. This is the case of school support services or computer. But also housekeepers and nannies in the large cities. "Ile-de-France, the average salary in-home service is 12 euros net per hour," says Florence Karras, DG specialized site cnickel.com .

Disaster for companies

The simulations are final. According FEPEM a family using a live-in nanny 40 hours per week to 12 hours euros net pay, because of the end of the package, despite the reduction of 0,75 euro and caregivers (provision of services for young children), 65.51 euros per month. Nearly 800 euros per year. Parents paying 18 euros an hour for a teacher their child will be the total bill, including charges, from 24.6 euros to 32.80 euros per hour, according to calculations cnickel.com. Only downside: the repayment of income tax of 50% will halve the extra cost.

Nevertheless, the price increase is likely to be a deterrent. "This will encourage moonlighting. Hours will not be declared and a share of compensation will be paid under the table ", Marie-Béatrice Levaux alert. Not really social progress for the personal … The FEPEM recalled that the last increase in payroll (end of the reduction of 15 points on the real system) has lost 6900 jobs reported in full-time equivalents in 2011.

Companies are minority (4% of the market) in a sector where employment and direct associations dominate. But for those companies that are specialized in providing expensive (typically over) sold with the package, the blow is hard. Especially as some of them also suffer an increase in VAT. "Some of our members are closing branches. It is killing an economic ecosystem, "protested Maxime Aiach, president of the Federation Service to individuals.

For now, most of the benefits of personal services is preserved. The case is limited to the package. 70% of households would not use the package even see the cost of home help lower thanks to the reduction of 0.75 euro. PS and the government has maintained a tax reduction of 50%. "But I'm worried about the future. It is imperative that the majority does not touch the tax reduction, "Marie-Béatrice Levaux alert. Reminder that the sector employs 2.2 million people.

The pound continues to slip. Tuesday, it fell below 1.4877 dollars, its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2010. The book is depreciated by 8.3% against the dollar this year and 7% against the euro, which makes it the currency of the worst performing developed markets in 2013, after the yen.

It is disappointing that manufacturing production has plunged the British pound. Against all odds, the figure stood down in January. This bad start of 2013 has revived fears of recession entry into the United Kingdom, as growth contracted in the last quarter of 2010 and unless outstanding performance in the service sector beginning of this year, growth could be negative in the first quarter of 2013. The UK could then face its third recession since the Great Depression of 2008!

The prospect is worrying investors, who were anyway not expected industrial production to drop sterling "There is definitely a momentum against the pound, said Derek Halpenny at Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, and markets seize any excuse. Low statistics in the UK suggest a new quantitative easing, and this is a recipe to reduce the book. "

"Shock Treatment"

Indeed, unlike the United States where improved data suggests that the Federal Reserve may have less need to support the economy, the Bank of England could reinforce its action plan guaranteed pay day loans. Last week, the Bank of England is holding its goal of redemption of 375 billion pounds, but strategists await the next BoE meeting in early April, knowing that some of its members are in favor of a more flexible quantitative, with 25 billion pounds new employees to support the British economy. In fact, many economists believe that the March 20, Chancellor George Osborne could announce within the next budget, new powers of the Bank of England to give him more leeway.

But the Minister of Economy should go further by employers. This week, John Longworth, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce (IWC) has proposed a "shock treatment." According to him, "If within six months, there is still no prospect of growth, it will consider the option to borrow more money." The solution would be, he says, to reduce some welfare and invest the money in activities that doperaient growth. Areas selected should be those that "forgive markets", that is to say infrastructure.

It seems unlikely that the government reverse its fiscal policy immediately. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron has explained that if Downing Street came back on drastic cuts in place, the country would plunge into the abyss.

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