The German exception continues to shine, although less strongly, within the euro area. While members of the single currency have seen, in general, the activity to fall by -0.2% in the second quarter, the largest economy of the Old Continent grew stronger than expected for 0, 3% in the second quarter.
The gap between countries that are doing well and those that go wrong. The Netherlands, with growth of 0.2%, clearly surprised analysts, who expected a decline in activity of 0.3%. The Belgian economy, which fluctuated between growth and recession in recent quarters, plunged -0.6%. It's almost as much as Italy (-0.7%).
"The euro area as a whole avoids a hair recession (officially two consecutive quarters of declining activity), with zero growth in the first quarter, says Ken Wattret, economist responsible for the euro area of BNP Paribas. However, this is a reprieve. Many economic indicators point to a contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter. "
Even if the figures published by the German Institute of Statistics does not give details, Germany seems to have fared better thanks to private consumption. "It is supported by a low unemployment rate and a sharp rise in wages this year," said Rainer Sartoris, an economist at HSBC online pay day loans. A situation that contrasts with the rest of the euro area. In France, consumption has lost ground (-0.2%) and in the euro area because of austerity, high unemployment and declining purchasing power, Ken Wattret list.
Excessive trade surplus?
Germany also stands out from the field of exports, which exceeded imports. It might even achieve a trade surplus of 6% over the year, which would be too high by European standards, reported Thursday the Financial Times Deutschland. It must be said that up to 210 billion euros, it could overtake China and accentuate the imbalance within the euro area, between it and the South who are particularly into deep recessions.
But the end of the year could be worse for Germany. The second quarter has already posted back from the first (+0.3% after +0.5%). Two obstacles may slow the locomotive German. First a global trade falters in the wake of economic slowdown could reduce Chinese exports. Then, the deepening crisis in the euro zone may hinder its sales to its main and closest economic partners.
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