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After stagnating in 2011 as a result of spring Arab, African growth this year will see a new boost. The African Development Bank, which publishes Monday its annual scoreboard at the general meetings, provides an increase of 4.5% GDP for the whole continent, against 3.4% in 2011. The recovery will be very clear in North Africa, very touched last year by the uprisings in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, with a projected increase of 3.1% after 0.5% in 2011. Sub-Saharan Africa continues on a path very positive: + 5.4% anticipated in 2012 and 2013. "The general tone is clearly optimistic, not excluding many internal and external risks," explains the chief economist Mthuli Ncube.
Another promising development, says the African Development Bank, the continent's economy is diversifying. If growth still relies heavily on commodity exports – agricultural, oil and mining – which stimulate foreign direct investment, from growing emerging economies (Brazil, China and India), it is also due to internal motors. The Chief Economist is the best management of the macroeconomic framework, including Ghana and Nigeria, especially in controlling inflation and the emergence of middle classes which boosts consumption, residential real estate and investment. "This can be seen for example in Kenya, South Africa, Uganda. This is generally true in countries that have no natural resources, where the emphasis is on education, entrepreneurship, "he says. Conversely, "the resource-rich countries need to address more the transformation of their economies, this must be a priority in their agenda," adds Mthuli Ncube, citing Gabon, Botswana, Algeria or Angola.
Cons-example: in Nigeria, which is still very dependent on oil and gas, it is mainly telecommunications, trade, industry and agriculture that fueled the growth. Sign of renewed confidence, the service sector, especially banking and financial, is growing widespread. Evidenced by the presence of big names in private equity, such as Allied and Bain Capital, and the development of telephone banking.
Among the risks, there is the impact of the international situation, a possible decline in commodity prices or a more marked slowdown in eurozone dampen trade, investment and bank financing. That's not counting the inherent weaknesses in the continent: political risk, inflation pressures … and more structurally deficient infrastructure and regional integration.
It is 11 h 44 in New York, May 18, 2012. All Internet, dozens of television channels, onlookers from Times Square and some of Wall Street have their eyes on the Nasdaq. Facebook just made its first steps on the stock market. Suddenly, the action picks up. After briefly flirting with 45 dollars, the price falls to $ 38, its initial offering price, in minutes. A shiver runs through the trading rooms, television sets and Twitter. Are we witnessing the bursting of a second Internet bubble? The suspension of the action at the same time Zynga only feed the anxiety. The publisher of games for social networks, whose business model is closely linked to Facebook, has lost 13% in less than five minutes cash advance in one hour.
Is general amazement. Two and a half hours earlier, Mark Zuckerberg, the young boss and co-founder of social network to 901 million members, had rung the opening of the Nasdaq since the Facebook headquarters in Menlo Park, California. While the star network and her assistant, Sheryl Sandberg, jumped for joy, clapping their hands, the debate on television and in the forums punters are concerned the question: "How much action going she jump? 10%, 20%, 50%? "Millions of investors were betting on a rise of the action that would allow them to make a profit by selling their shares rapidly within minutes after purchase.
Francois Hollande has rewritten the rules of the game with Angela Merkel, in what is still hard to call the Franco-German couple. And, in the words of a witness of the last closed session at the Brussels summit on Wednesday night, speaking twenty-five others is somehow released.
The new French president is desperate to come off, at least until the legislative, the austere image that sticks to the Chancellor and the submission that we lent to Nicolas Sarkozy. Up to parody. At the opening of the summit, under the eye of the cameras, Francois Hollande has neither praised Angela Merkel, not even crossed his eyes, in sharp contrast to arrivals arm in arm appreciated by his predecessor. Then, at a press conference, he praised a new look Europe in which "each country has and must be heard." Include: Germany any more than the other.
The coming weeks will tell what will become the major European project of the Elysee, the Eurobond, expected to finally bring growth on the continent. Angela Merkel reiterated yesterday that the pooling of loans "no sense" and it runs the risk "aggravating the crisis." On this point, whatever people say, the Chancellor is far from isolated.
Certainly, France has succeeded in reversing the terms of the debate on growth and austerity. But, around the table, nobody supports the immediate implementation of the pet project of President Holland, an official confirmed the fact of the discussion. Only five of the bloc want the EU to be harnessed immediately. The matter is referred to a committee, led by President Herman Van Rompuy, will deliver its report later this year. Eurobonds, says an influential player, it was just a "trick" to mark the end of the condominium Merkel-Sarkozy
. The compromise is difficult, but it is irreplaceable
It remains to clean up the mess in a Franco-German entente is, since 1951, the major vehicle of European integration. All was not rosy in Merkozy. But the first hours of the new presidency reflect, beyond appearances, a tremendous accumulation of mistrust and frustration.
Eurobonds, French rabbit from the hat, can not obscure the fact that Francois Hollande has already gone on two major points of rigor "German". There will be no renegotiation of the pact budget reviled by the left. The ax will fall and the European final in the French public deficit if it exceeds 3% next year. To survive, the French economy has no choice but to accelerate the reforms it would still leak.
German side, Angela Merkel feels like a stab in the back attempts to circumvent orchestrated from Paris. Of these, the least is not the stubborn refusal of France to spend the Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble at the head of the Eurogroup.
The Perfect Storm of Greece to Spain, the club of the euro remains as a crew without a captain or motivation. The image is, indeed, for all of Europe: Paris and Berlin, this is precisely where the compromise is difficult is emerging as irreplaceable.
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The situation tends to biotech, highlighted the 2012 panorama of the association France Biotech. In 2011, for the first time in years, there was more business closures than in the creations: 25 biotechs, five times more than in 2008, have ended their activity and 24 were established day, two times less than in previous years.
Funding, the sinews of war for these start-up dedicated to innovation, mainly in the medical field, is also down. The funds raised on stock markets and companies with venture capital fell by 40% from 460 million euros in 2010 to 277 million in 2011. Small consolation, these difficulties do not affect that of France. Funding for the biotech sector fell 36% last year in Europe, says research firm Ernst & Young.
Partnerships with large pharmaceutical companies
Fortunately, another source of growth, partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies, develops. More than 85 agreements were signed last year, half with research institutions and academic third with big labs.
In France, the biotechs (who manufacture drugs derived from living things) and medtechs (innovative medical devices) now employ 4,209 people in 1,359 companies, making it, according to the OECD, the second country after the United States, by the number of companies Life Sciences.
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The global economy benefits from the acceleration of trade and, more generally, a renewed confidence. But the worsening debt crisis in recent months is still the main risk to the threat, says OECD.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which today released its semiannual forecast, expects global growth to 3.4% this year and 4.2% in 2013, against 3.4% and 4.3% respectively in the projections of last November. Market participants are concerned about a possible exit of Greece in the euro area, such as to destabilize the EU and its banking system. The strength of Spanish banks, which will have to recapitalize in the coming weeks, is also a central concern.
"After a respite at the end of last year the crisis in the euro area is made more serious recently and remains the largest source of risk for the world economy (…). The drag on growth due to fiscal consolidation could be significant, particularly in some countries, "said the chief economist of the OECD, Pier Carlo Padoan, in the" editorial "of the report.
The recovery is not enough
For the OECD, the structural imbalances between the countries of the region, she said the cause of the crisis, have only just started to reverse. And the recovery in the countries most solids is not sufficient to offset the stagnation or even recession in some cases, countries in difficulty. "The competitiveness, low in deficit countries, must be resolved while a structural adjustment and higher wages in the surplus countries would contribute to rebalancing pro-growth," it added low fee payday loans.
The OECD believes that in addition to reforms undertaken by the States the European Central Bank has room for maneuver to pursue a policy of monetary easing, especially through its "program for securities markets" (SMP program redemption of government bonds).
If Europe crystallizes concerns, the OECD is more optimistic for the United States, it considers should enjoy growth of 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2013.
France should resume in the second half
After an expected stagnation in the first half, the French economy is expected to recover in the second, to show a 0.6% growth in 2012, a rate too low, however, to generate new jobs according to calculations by economists. For 2013, the OECD projects a growth rate of 1.2% in France, below the government's projections, which built its program on the basis of economic growth set at 1.7%. "Residential investment would decelerate as house prices began to decline. Unemployment could peak at 10.5% in early 2013 and decline only slowly from that date, "writes the OECD. "But in spite of low growth, the goal of reducing the budget deficit to 4.5% (GDP) in 2012 should be achieved through a better result in 2011 had been anticipated (5.2%) .
The new government is committed to Europe's promise of France to reach a budget deficit of 3% in 2013.
The OECD notes that "most of the consolidation effort in France will have to come from lower public spending."
Eric Besson job interview: the … Cadremploi by Eric Besson has perhaps invented the personal branding which we are always hearing today. Freshly flunked the ENA for sending wandered a jury member of the Big O on an issue that seemed uninteresting, Eric Besson will be an asset for his failure by publishing an advertisement in Le Monde in which he announced in black and white have missed ENA. This blow, which prefigures the strategies of job search now common on the Internet earned him a lot of offers and contacts.
Eric Besson will later career is known but his past headhunting and recruitment beaten man that interests us. Eric Besson talks recruiting and speaks well, rationally, with restraint. He confesses a certain modesty in the interpersonal aspects of care. It is, also, a manager who welcomes rarely face to face, but manages to make known to its employees, by others, he is happy. One way to avoid misunderstandings.
Complex, Eric Besson. And not just interested in politics. One day, a recruiter told him to channel his "torrent" personal. This torrent is his desire to pursue a professional career of the richest, most labels can be freed. Policy, the private football: it will make other things, he likes to change, do as he pleases. Thus, it was not programmed to join Sarkozy.
He can also talk about the title of the position he accepted after serving as Secretary of State for the prospective "immigration and national identity." He said he had not seen this title in any defamatory connotation but acknowledges that the trouble came later, when the debate went wrong. Its never done, he insists. After 60 minutes of maintenance, but an evil that can predict the future of Eric Besson or seize its character: it is secret, caring, smiling slightly, deadpan. We will not know about his professional future.
"If I say anything to my desires, between the two rounds and by the election result, it could be misinterpreted." So we talk about Twitter, his extensive use in recent months and that he left recently by suggesting that he might return, but under a different hat.
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FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS ON FIGARO:
"Twitter: @ LeFigaro_Emploi
Our correspondents in Athens and Madrid
The eurozone is trying to stem the risk of bank runs at its periphery. In Greece, where the run on windows is the most serious – aggravated by the deterioration of the bank notes by the rating agencies – the Bank of Greece has corrected the figures released by the European press. It would not be a flight of deposits of 800 million euros a day, as suggested this week by the President of the Hellenic Republic itself, but of 100 million euros a day from May 6 Neither more nor less than in 2011.
"That does not mean that the Greeks are not worried: remove 35 billion euros a year, it's huge!" Says Panagiotis Tampoureas of Development for the bank ATE. "To believe the press, the authorities are studying a proposed freeze on bank withdrawals to 1,000 euros per month per person. But the set up would announce the bankruptcy of the banking system and people will fight to save their economies. A real disaster, "says he.
Despite the impressive figures of flow, there would in fact banks € 165 billion. "This means that only 30% were withdrawn for two years," says Takis Tampoureas. All hope for a political calm after the elections on June 17.
Spain also seeks to ease concerns about the soundness of its banks. Following the collapse Thursday of the share price of Bankia, the fourth largest bank in the country has recovered its Friday stock market losses. Its main competitors have also found the green.
Degradation of Moody's
Analysts explain the steep descent of Bankia by publishing a rumor that clients have withdrawn their deposits over one billion euros in one week no fax payday advances. Twice denied by the bank and the government seems to have borne fruit. And the announcement on Thursday night, a degradation of 16 Spanish banks rated by Moody's, had no impact on the square in Madrid.
The banking sector problems remain yet whole. The Bank of Spain said Thursday a record rate of bad loans: 8.47% in March, or 147 billion euros. The big unknown for the needs of bank recapitalization. Madrid has promised an audit on this subject. The name of the two companies responsible for inspecting credit institutions will be unveiled Monday, the press table on Black Rock and Goldman Sachs.
After the Council of Ministers, the government number two, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, said that the first resistance test will be done "quickly, in less than a month" before subjecting banks to examination more detailed.
Asked about the possibility of using EU funds to finance the Spanish banks, Santamaría dismissed the question. "There is no reason to doubt the ability of the Spanish government to help its banks without using the bailout fund," said a spokesman for the German Ministry of Finance.
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Rarely been so general meeting consensus than Veolia. The 700 shareholders gathered Wednesday in Paris at the Carrousel du Louvre, applauded the strategy of Mr. Frérot and voted no qualms in joining the Board of three new directors. Jacques Aschenbroich, CEO of Valeo, Maryse Aulagnon, president of the land Affine, and Nathalie Rachou, Topiary Finance manager, replacing in particular Jean-Francois Dehecq and Esther Koplowitz, both close to Proglio, the former CEO of service to local communities.
Absent at the meeting, it was not mentioned once during the session, either by the leaders of Veolia or by its shareholders. Yet, now boss of EDF but still a director of Veolia, he led a revolt against his successor without end, which he blames his change in strategy. In February, Proglio had launched an unsuccessful coup attempt against Mr. Frérot. More recently, his relatives have circulated in the press an anonymous note criticizing the management of the CEO.
This could, in the coming days, to make further revisions to its teams in particular, to oust managers who maintain the revolt against him.
"Antoine-Henri Proglio Frérot: the phoney war
Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate, welcomed Tuesday the decline in carbon emissions of 12,000 power plants and factories of Twenty-Seven, Norway and Liechtenstein submitted to CO2 quotas. These emissions have decreased by 2% in 2011 while GDP growth in the European Union (EU) rose 1.5%.
"This positive result shows that the ETS (the system of trading commonly known as CO2 exchange, Ed) allows emission reductions at lower cost," said the former Danish Minister of Environment from Brussels.
According to the Commission, less than 1% of installations weighing less than 1% of carbon emissions did not meet their cap. In addition, 2% of facilities did not submit their record on April 30, annual renewal of the quota system.
The refusal of the Chinese airlines
Since 2010, the airlines participating in the European system. In 2011, almost all companies reported their figures. But it is only since 1 January 2012 all companies, European or not, operating flights to or from the EU must meet emissions ceilings cheap pay day loans.
As the 12,000 facilities are already covered by EU ETS, companies that exceed their target can buy carbon credits on the stock exchange, and those who are virtuous can sell. Ten Chinese and Indian companies that represent approximately 3% of aviation emissions have declined to publish their releases. Beijing has so far strongly opposed the application of CO2 allowances to its airlines in the European skies.
The economic crisis, since 2009, has reduced CO2 emissions on the Old Continent and brought to market a surplus of credits. Result, the price per tonne of CO2 has collapsed to about 12.5 euros in mid-2011 to 6.7 euros on Tuesday on the spot market.
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