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Roman Lucazeau, Chargé de Mission in the Business Institute, details the mechanisms at work in the test programs.

THE FIGARO.FR. – Why submit programs of candidates for this test?

Roman Lucazeau. – Although, compared to the 2007 presidential campaign, the programs of the two main candidates are more accurate, they still gray areas and are based on slightly different economic scenarios. This makes comparison difficult. So we tried to apply the same economic variables: growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, by 2017. We also wanted to discover what happened to the public finances if the programs were implemented with, notably, lower growth than that provided by the candidates, for example, that France has known, on average, over the past decade.  

Originally, this type of exercise is applied by the financial authorities to banks. These are subject to economic scenarios degraded to assess their strength in case of economic crisis. We use a similar method to test the ability of candidates to achieve their stated goal (zero deficit in 2016 for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2017 for Francis Holland).

But in a crisis, a candidate can always abandon its initial program

.

Absolutely. We test the strength of their roadmap, as defined during the election campaign, in a worse position than they anticipate business card. We evaluate today's promises and do not prejudge the future president of the reactions in case of contingencies.  

How does this model?

We leave the bases nominee programs (eg growth rate, the level of taxes and public spending …) and against which they built their proposals. These assumptions are public and have been developed by their campaign teams. We determine how the deficit and debt change if we change some parameters on the basis of data and public reporting, the INSEE, the Court of Auditors and of Bercy. The details of our methodology is available on our website.

How do you ensure objectivity of your approach?

We submitted the candidates' platforms to the same constraints: same inflation, even growth, even drift government spending or health insurance, etc.. The differences between results are explained by the differences between the programs themselves. Debt strategy of the two candidates based on both on growth, tax increases and budget savings. But Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande do not intend to use these levers to the same extent. Their programs do not react the same way a change of parameters.

Presidential in major cities Paris | Leeds | Lyons | Toulouse | Leeds | Sheffield | Liverpool | Bordeaux | Lille

Presidential in major cities Paris | Leeds | Lyons | Toulouse | Leeds | Sheffield | Liverpool | Bordeaux | Lille

From our correspondent in Seoul Pavilion rainbow sky slap the Esperanza as a challenge in the port of Incheon. The visit of the Greenpeace ship moored 50 km from Seoul, signals the end of recklessness for the nuclear industry South Korean party to world conquest.

In the aftermath of Fukushima, the environmental organization has made South Korea one of the main targets of his crusade against the atom by opening an office in Seoul. Landing a little appreciated by the government of conservative President Lee Myung-bak, who has repressed two representatives from Greenpeace cast doubt on the occasion of the nuclear summit in Seoul on March 26. And for good reason: the former head of Hyundai has built the atom "growth engine" with Pharaonic ambitions: export 80 plants by 2030, worth $ 400 billion, and climb to the third in the world by winning 20% ​​of the market on the planet!

These spectacular goals set in 2010 have not been formally questioned by the Japanese tragedy, but, behind the scenes, experts in Seoul already recognize that they will hardly be sustainable. For the wind turns the world as the Land of the Morning Calm-. Doubts about the safety of the country's 21 central crack pronuclear consensus that had prevailed since the program began in the 1970s.

Distrust of the population

In March, a failure in Guri, the oldest reactor of the peninsula, was hidden for a month before being brought to light, sowing disorder. Now, 55% of South Koreans oppose the government's target of doubling the share of nuclear power up to 60% by 2030, according to a survey of the Korean Federation for Environmental Movement (KFEM) instant personal loans guaranteed. The Democratic Party, the main opposition, advocates an even nuclear output by 2040.

This wind of distrust is bad news for the export sector whose primary asset is the timeliness of its civil engineering, which is able to build a power plant per year. But Fukushima has cast a pall over the ambitions of Seoul by blurring the growth prospects of the global market while casting doubt on the strategy "low cost" that allowed him to defeat the French in the UAE in 2009.

The chain runs into an economic reality: the discounts offered in Abu Dhabi threatens to make this first contract loss surgery because public banks requisitioned by the government struggling to finance the project. "Taxpayers should not foot the bill!" Warns Won Young Yang Yi, the KFEM.

No question, however, for Korea to give up becoming a great of the atom, while the country has to import 97% of its energy needs. But Seoul is now known that the ascent to Olympus Atomic will be more difficult than expected and postponed his hopes on the Middle East, India and Southeast Asia.

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Complex and dense, the French tax system also has a little side fantasy. Example with the misnamed "tax on shows," which strikes no more cultural show but applies to sporting events, to circles and gambling houses This tax is 8% on entrance fees, except for motor racing and … pigeon shooting, imposed, for some reason, to 14%. Other sports are exempted. A very serious order lists them: athletics, judo but also bowls, sports bowling, target shooting, javelin, long palm … Our zealous technocrats have wanted to forget anyone. Finally, the municipalities, who are the beneficiaries of the entertainment tax, may decide to specific exemptions.

Believing that such exemptions are breaking the principle of equal taxation, the football club Paris Saint-Germain took the case before the Constitutional Council. In vain. The Sages have found these exemptions constitutional because they are based on objective and rational. "The Order lists mainly sports whose quality is not the first to draw crowds," said Council. And to clarify: "The revenue generated by a competition of cane, roller skating, trampolining, or twirling stick (which are exempt) are not commensurate with those that could generate a competitive tennis, football or rugby. "We can not agree more.

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Medel, its official name Lucmagn, is a quiet village of 435 souls nestled at 1332 meters altitude, in the heart of the Alps, in the region of the Lukmanierpass (Grisons). Its inhabitants were just as quiet on their heights until a Swiss mining company, a subsidiary of Canadian Gold NV, may disturb their idyll. Under their feet, in fact hides a gold mine. That company then proposed to exploit this in exchange for 40 million Swiss francs, or about 33 million euros. Against all odds, the villagers declined the offer to two-thirds of the population, after a referendum held in early April.

According to Business Insider, the mine in question, located in a vast pine forest in the snowy peaks and valley Medel, to contain about 1.2 billion dollars of precious metals. The U.S. site information reports that the history of the mine clearly divided the inhabitants of the valley. Some would see a tremendous opportunity in the economic deficient, while others – mostly – highlight their concerns about the environmental impact such a project would succeed.

For its part, NV Gold in talks with the mayor of the small town, more than ever determined to steal the treasure buried by the villagers jealously refractory.

Will they follow? The question hangs over Airbus, like Boeing, which monitors the behavior of its subcontractors. Similarly, the major suppliers so-called "rank 1", such as Safran and Thales, regularly take the pulse of their own ecosystem. Together, the industry will meet the challenge of rising rates announced (see graphic).

Having racked up record orders in 2011, Airbus must produce more and more to deliver in a timely manner its customers. Despite economic uncertainties, demand is high. The world fleet will more than double to over 31,000 units in the next twenty years. In 2012, Airbus expects to deliver 570 aircraft (+ 6% from 2011). Boeing and put on 585 to 600 deliveries in 2012 against 477 a year earlier.

Suppliers are energized. Airbus does internally and 15% of the value of an aircraft. He buys 9 to 10 billion euros of components and subassemblies for other U.S. and between 11 to 12 billion in Europe and the rest of the world. In France, many providers depend on more than 30% and sometimes 100% of its orders. Airbus health is linked to that of its subcontractors. And vice versa. "We support our partners to increase their industrial performance. We have strengthened our team with our suppliers to optimize their production, "said Fabrice Brégier, CEO of Airbus.

We need to fund this growth. "Our industry is highly capital. Our working capital needs are important to fund our stock. We produce three to six months ahead of the pace of the builder. To garner a turnover of euro, we must invest one euro, "says Emmanuel Viellard, president of Lisi Aerospace, a leading European aerospace fasteners (airframes and engines). "Between 2010 and 2015, we plan to invest 250 million euros to finance 60% increase in activity linked to increased rates of manufacturers," he adds.

A fund of 100 million

This is when the order books are re-inflated to block the subcontractors are struggling to find financing. Especially SMEs as banks remain cautious. The Gifas, the union bosses of Aeronautics, conducted an awareness campaign on this theme. He watches any failure. Initiatives are multiplying to help SMEs. Next to the Strategic Investment Fund (FSI, depending on the Deposit) and type Aerofund dedicated funds, the state decided, with the support of Airbus and several banks, to develop a new tool Financial that takes into account the specificities of the sector. A fund of 100 million euro was launched to provide long-term bank loans to finance the "time costs" (NRC) under the pooling of risk between manufacturer and subcontractors. They must subsidize the upstream (design and development) by assuming the burden of NRC which are written on the number of aircraft sold. ROI – 10 to 15 years after the launch of a new device – is tied to the success of a program whose life often exceeds thirty years.

"Triple A Aviation"

But we must also rely on late shift that the first deliveries. They trap the subcontractors that produced in advance of equipment that will be paid upon delivery. In this case, inventories swell and cash suffers. Latecoere, which provides fuselage sections and wiring systems, has been close to bankruptcy. Heavily indebted, it has been hard hit by delays in the A 380 and B 787. An extreme case that prompted Airbus, in particular, to fly to the rescue by setting in advance of development costs and by providing four years of work load. As if the manufacturer gave a triple-A to its supplier, which reassures banks.

"We do not direct funding, but sometimes we make a one-time, targeted, said Marc Ventre, Executive Officer of Safran. Very keen to preserve the capacity for innovation in France, we give visibility to our partners by providing the production schedules in advance and by contracting our relations. "" Banks no longer rely only on past performance and objectives. This reassures them when we have commitments on four or seven years, "says Julien de Souza, president of Mecachrome (for engine components and fuselage components). The SME 256 million euros in sales projected to increase by 20% of its investments between 2012 (16 million) and 2014.

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"We are ready to work with the next government whatever, whatever the outcome of the election on May 6. We think very quickly social issues are at the heart of phase government that opens, "said Tuesday Laurence Parisot, president of MEDEF, during his monthly press conference at the headquarters of the employers' organization.

Anxious to show their determination, the business leaders continue to negotiate with the unions during the presidential campaign on the issues of 1% housing and employment competitiveness. "In addition, we are ready to discuss a social agenda with unions," said Laurence Parisot.

While recalling that Nicolas Sarkozy had made "an extraordinary job under extraordinary circumstances" caused by a financial crisis followed by an economic crisis, the president of MEDEF said "feel closer" to Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate for the presidential election, "the role of intermediary bodies and of the peer." She also found "very interesting" his proposed "entrenchment of social dialogue" while hoping for clarification on "this ambition."

Reopen the debate on the role of the ECB

Asked about the will of Francis Holland to give a boost to minimum wage, Laurence Parisot is pragmatic. "What interests me just at the moment is that Francois Hollande has said that this would be a discussion, a dialogue," commented the president of MEDEF while warning against "a evolution of the minimum wage that is not linked to productivity gains and inflation developments. " Although it has not yet met Francois Hollande, Laurence Parisot assured that it "might have the opportunity to do so by May 6."

Observing that the ideas defended by the MEDEF on Competitiveness, a zero deficit in public finances are themes of the campaign of Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande, Laurence Parisot regretted that Europe is missing from the presidential campaign.

Judging "perfectly legitimate" to reopen the debate on the role of the European Central Bank (ECB), which plays "a role already EUROPEAN growth since that particular Mario Draghi is president," the president of MEDEF said that this debate may be an opportunity to open "another debate on the general direction we want to give Europe". Laurence Parisot has recognized only one real frustration. "What saddens us most is what's missing in this campaign is the resounding praise of the entrepreneur," concluded the president of MEDEF.

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Francois Hollande • • • Nicolas Sarkozy • Jean-Luc Melenchon Bayrou • Marine Le Pen

Francois Hollande (PS)

Francois Hollande, April 15 at Vincennes no fax cash advance. Photo credits: THOMAS SAMSON / AFP