There is an air of revenge in the frenzy of cleaning the streets of Bangkok abused, fairs and giant group sessions of aerobics. After more than two months of antigovernment protests of "red shirts" and the bloody riots that have 86 dead and 1900 injured, the city will press to find a normal appearance.
How the country will he recover from such chaos? Surprisingly, economists show optimism about growth forecast for 2010 gross domestic product. There was consensus on a range of 3.5 to 5%, the central bank expects 5.8% and DBS Vickers Security goes up to 7%. In short, the worst political violence the country has known all his modern history should cost only 1.5 percentage points to growth."In Thailand, the political and economic living a separate life," said Pascal Furth, head of the Economic Mission in Thailand.
Between the destruction of neighborhoods and declining activity, the cost of violence would amount to 1.5 billion euros. And as the war scenes in the heart of Bangkok are very compatible with tourism, hotels are empty, their occupancy rate is capped at 15% and the inputs of holidaymakers have fallen by around 30% in recent days.
Tourism stranded
The tourism sector represents 6% of gross domestic product and employs 15% of the population, "will at a minimum six months to recover," said Kamonwan Wipulakorn, vice president of the Erawan Group. The trade association of the place Ratjaprasong $ 4.3 million daily losses of companies in this upscale neighborhood.And for small traders, now sweeping broken glass and make inventories of their shops looted, the losses will be difficult to absorb.
But the crisis was limited geographically in central Bangkok and tourism and distribution.
"Increasing uncertainty is not likely to affect the macroeconomic fundamentals and financial," says Supavud Saicheua, an analyst at Patra Securities. For "the Thai economy which depends heavily on exports experienced a significant rebound in 1st quarter (12% growth yoy).
The medium-term implications on foreign investment are difficult to measure. No French company does its presence in question. But the office of investments foresaw the end of April (before fighting) a decrease of 15% of foreign direct investment for 2010.
Before the performance insolent Exchange, the baht (local currency) fort, the historical record in tourist arrivals (4.7 million) of the first quarter, "The one thing to watch in Thailand is the force with which is being implement the government's stimulus plan. The first half of the fiscal year, only 40% have been disbursed, "said Pascal Furth.